Archive for March, 2015

More on Forex Hedging

Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Forex has become a huge focus of mine in the last few months, not least because when running the promotions business doing auckland dvd duplication and cd duplication, postering etc. it means we can work on client jobs and keep an eye on the action on the market and make our money.

Even when we’re just sitting here blogging getting google SEO juice happening for our influential blog posts, I’ve got one eye on what the forex market is doing.

I am actually thinking of going into business offering forex advice and funds. I had once thought of hiring someone to help me with forex, but I think I will have to give it more thought – I would probably be better of hiring a cleaner or something, just sorting out everything so I can focus more on trading, it’s quite bizarre to consider that as the thing grows, it’s probably more sensible for me to control the focus, the crazy thing about my system, or most forex systems I suppose is that the system itself doesn’t change, you just put more money in, and more money comes out. You scale the game.

It just seems extremely weird to think in a few years time I could be sitting here watching 6 figures working their way up, but the longer I’m in it, the more I am appreciating there is no reason to be concerned. It’s not as safe as a bank. But it’s probably safer than being under m

And with CMC markets they have guaranteed bank deposits in New Zealand – and you can get a sign up bonus to your account if you use me as your referral!

Email: kurbpromo@gmail.com and I will give you some free advice too.

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So the USD has gone extraordinarily high and using my strategy that left me caught carrying serious deficits on the other side knowing I’ve got EUR, CAD, AUD positions that won’t come back and be where they were last october for possibly YEARS.

I can’t help but feel happier when the USD peels back and I get my equity back, rather than peeling forward where I get my profits from my hedge but my equity dips.

When it finally peels right back, it will present some difficulty BUT I am away from the edges and therefore as long as I keep the hedge even, there’s no way I can lose equity.

What happens is that wherever you are, you keep the hedge even. That means only on the edge when you can take some pain do you start to ease the hedge off in anticipation of the bottom.

And so you get the top, like you are now, and you’ve got all that hedge stuck on one side going backwards, what do you do then? hedge all the way back the other way?

How do I slant that properly to get the result of higher profit yields and lowering the margin so I get that equity back?

Well once it’s clearly topped, it is heading down, you add greater amounts to the trend side, as it is already greater.

The side that is going up should be higher. But if you’re wrong, you take the profit and readjust the hedge. So when you’re stuck at the top and ready to go down, the uneven side should always be lower – provided it has topped.

But what if the trend continues? You have to buy up on the trend side, whether its at the bottom or not. When you get to the bottom of the trend, you have to sell up and match on the other side what you were unable to knock out before it became unprofitable.

But where it is in the range won’t affect this? I mean if it’s at the bottom of the range you can be more daring – depending on how big the range is and where you’re at with your margin level on that pair – are you prepared to increase your exposure?

You can also buy back rotten positions against the trend in order to lower your margin, but youre trying to pick a spot that is against the trend, carry trade unfriendly, but still close to the top of a trend.

So you need to propose some models here.

With USD EUR – we know which way the trend is pointing with USD pairs, and with EUR we can be fairly confident it doesn’t have the backbone, so I am really confident having my USD side exposure higher.

But with USD GBP I know the pound has much more fight long term, so even though I am have to watch the USD trend, I have to leave some room on the USD side for the reversal, so this is a 50% hedge now and when the euro drops further, and the AUD too, I will ease off.

There’s just no top in sight for the USD so no reason to start winding off the hedge bets for the EUR or AUD.

This is where the real discussion about hedging get started, especially the EURGBP and AUDUSD because I have evened out the hedge, I know the trend, but what happens when the trend breaks?

The Euro and AUD will fall, but the deeper the hedge you build, the sooner you get to a place where you’re overbought, and the further that side falls, the more it eats your equity, and our fear becomes that somehow, that balance tips so far out that your margins are threatened even on the inside.

It starts when suddenly I will have the euro rising and the USD dropping and those hedges will not be doing me any favours as they fall.

Right now I have $108k euro rising, and $114k of the pound, falling, what do I do? Well I can be confident of the pound getting up again, that’s why it’s slightly higher, and if it continue to unwind? Well we’re adding more to the EUR side as it rises, but we know it will fall, so we are easing off, because it will begin eating equity, and so the GBP positions must be more modest, until that counter trend breaks, the GBP starts rising and it’s already higher.

Like the AUDGBP, as the GBP come up and sells off, it meets the EUR hedge to hedge, which is falling back with modest positions, and the trend is on, as the GBP rises, we must keep the hedge even, or sometimes even greater, selling off on the reversals to avoid being stuck with equity eaters should there be a turnaround.

If there is a turnaround, then the big positions fall on the other side as you move that way gobbling up the small positions and replacing them with big ones.

Soon enough you get the parameters of the ranges, because there is a big position what wasn’t withdrawn on each side. Eventually there will be a breakout which leaves big positions stranded on one side.

But you also grab the profits. The fear is that the break out breaks past that point of profit to some other point which unerlines the point that when it goes up and down it’s good, when it stays going one direction it’s no good.

But the the further it goes back inside, eventually it must meet up with where the falls began, it just may mean I am carrying $200k hedged against each other there.

But by that stage not only is busting my account impossible, the moves made

But what if I really had no clue what the trend was? Well it works the same, within the range you have two break out points, when you break out, one big position becomes profitable, you begin to add to work to overbear the balance and ride the bias, but you must get out on the reversal. There, your sub range has grown wider, the two break out points more distant, it may reverse and return to set up yet another break out point, so much like my USDEUR, you have these multiple amounts stacking up and it’s getting hard to hedge on the other side against the trend.

Without the trend it’s hard to say whether whether you begin to wait on another reversal to earn your money back, but then youre no longer playing the hedging game.

But when you hedge, there must always be a valve so that the losses can ease of and allow the equity to emerge.

Then there is the AUDEUR and the USDGBP, we havent filled up the hedge meaning theres still room to slide back, put if the Euro starts bottoming or the USD starts topping, the hedges are there to roll on so we can take some profit to keep our equity up.

It seems like a tactical move to build equity securely, however slowly, then look to add proper biases back to what we’re doing otherwise the equity may just continue to go unrealised.

But again I see the increasingly bold tactic of building out. Soon my profit when it becomes my main source of revenue, will meet a natural point where equity becomes more important. Extra profits can be used for buy backs, or positions on the side we strategically want to reduce replaced by smaller sizes.

We spoke about putting together forex strategy presentation videos.

So what is my forex strategy heading into april 2015?

AUD:

The AUD is still expected to fall long term, so the robust hedge I’ve got against the USD seems well measured. It still allows for some slip but we know it will never slip too far.

The GBP is expected to be tentatively growing stronger, but it’s also the one currency with the smallest range, while still having the biggest price difference which really made us have to take notice of the difference in value of the counter positions and hedges held there. The small range shows us they are the closest, so we can have some less risky fun, because we know we can favour the pound, which makes some big gains. If the pound drops we can get in behind the aussie side it won’t fall that far. If the pound rises, we can get in behind the trend, just try to avoid leaving bigger positions further down.

If the EUR is also falling however, and they are actually starting to be similarly placed, that pair becomes interesting. Knowing we are stuck in a range because the Euro is so weak but the AUD is also weak, encourages us to lean in where we are. The euro could go up, but never that far. The australian could go up, but never that far, so lean in.

This is a good candidate for buy backs when the euro is high because of the interest and the fact that the euro will not be soaring again for some time.

The AUD seems worth the risk because it can bounce back against the EUR and doesn’t have far to fall against the GBP, or even any more huge drops expected against the USD. A good place to test the ranges.

USD:

Will remain bullish, but the deep hedges we have created to capitalize on the gains hold us back when we are trying to gain on the drops. Long term, this is not an issue, but it is when we are trying to create the rise in equity that would signal our mastery. In the future such a thing may not be such an issue, but in the future we might not be so confident in the trend of the USD, where all conditions are favouring it’s support.

The pound is the only currency that has the strength to allow a sustained roll back, that is why we have created the most biased hedge there in the hope we can gain from the roll back.

EUR The Euro remains the opposite of the USD, but the USD being so overextended means our heavy bias towards the USD looks precarious should the roll back extend. We end up in no man’s land, which will force us to build our hedge, or simply have confidence and back our USD position knowing that if a full blown reversal happens we will be forced deeper into hedging.

Because of our hedging, we look to make gains on retracements rather than let the equity be released, so our strategy is to balance the hedges, or retain the bias towards the USD so when it cranks up, we buy up and ride the trend.

If we do end up wrong we can only hope we match up with the euro side sooner or later, so the hedges can be kept under control, but should we be forced into greater hedges, matching the USD as it rolls down with $20k+ positions, it is when it reverses back onto trend that we can make our equity back.

Yes, a single move of the USD back to above $1.15 seems unlikely but would start to hurt at some stage, what we can hope for is it would happen so slowly that we can build our equity, but the reality is once we have $200k hedges our profits must be increasing, if we’re sitting on $20k hedges, where we take more losses, we take more profit, and the growth of equity through profits stacking where losses remained balanced and equal starts taking us to a place where we can feel safer about the bias we have sitting on the hedges.

Then the question comes down to projecting income.

I think we’ve learnt if there is insane volitility and you get to ride down on a spike, you can make grands, and as I step up my exposure that will become more pronounced. There will be plenty of weeks I struggle to make $1k but I’ll have another week where I make $3k+ soon enough.

You can’t predict earnings based on volatility or exposure alone, but you know together, high volatility will multiply higher exposures.

Low exposure and high volatility couldn’t offer us enough in the past, but what about high exposure and low volatility? That will be the measure.

Well it appears when an event risk is coming up the market tenses like a spring and barely moves before blasting off, but when there’s little event risk you get solid flows moving back and forth which is good for me to make some money, but can easily lead to complacent habits when you forget big positions can get cut adrift once you break the range and become a headache.

Auckland Duplication Hedging Strategies

Monday, March 16th, 2015

So is forex the only aspect of kurb up for discussion right now?

Well we need that return that guarantees we can hire staff and fund progress in other areas.

It’s only going to take longer otherwise, how can I swim through all the stress in my work doing all the auckland cd dvd duplication knowing there’s an easier way to breakthrough so I can easily pay people to start taking on duties within the business. That lifts the burden off me, I have more financial resources, and therefore I can move forward.

I need discussion on my blog to get my ideas about business moves straight, we need to have contingencies on contingencies, so that should a stressful situation occur we have already plotted out how we are to behave.

If the hedging is not enough and the swings are too great . . . well what kind of swings are you talking about? If your hedging is smart, such a swing that would wipe you out couldn’t be possible – all aspects would be held in balance.

The point is we can’t relax until the USD finds it’s top. When that finally happens and we don’t have 5 out of 6 pairs threatening the edge, that is a more extreme situation than we might ever encounter again, and I don’t believe that euro can fall that much below parity.

Again hedging works because of my style. Hundreds of little gains, attention to detail, always being in the game, following the game, making cuts and switches to get my action.

Youre hoping the pools of debt maintain their level or ease slightly, while you squeeze capital out of it creating more space between the pool and the edge.

USD EUR: $20k – sort of fast depreciating, so always keep it higher when rising – craft balance, lower debt cost
AUD EUR: $6k – fast depreciating, so look to build 70k+ (probably where we’re losing 2nd most) – look to add $30k – $50k asap
GBP EUR: $10k – slow depreciating, so keep a lid on it – showing future moves – craft balance, lower debt cost
AUD GBP: $4k – safe, no hedging required as yet – buy in biased to AUD side to balance
USD AUD: $11k – slow depreciating, try to tone it down – craft balance, lower debt cost, experiment with building up both sides
GBP USD: $12k – very fast depreciating. $70k-100k – first $20k soon, add next $50k slowly, trying to absorb windback.

Total: $68k

Don’t forget Canada, NZ and Turkey, good $3k there on good day.

Total, $67k.

What I have just as it happens. Then there’s the margin, I’d say you’re looking at at least $250.

We may have to stretch that to $70k in regard of the time taken to tame these seas to calm pools, there will be transition as we try to gain advantage

I think when we learn the art of balancing the hedge, buying a toxic position makes the difference because when you knock out that position, the equity springs back, and it’s no longer part of the momentum of a rolling motion gathering strength, the wave of loss grows weaker while the tide of strength grows stronger, these shifts on top of the hedge balance you’ve already built means you can actually make good money from trades without taking as much risj.

You’re surfing the wave on top, not sailing through the ocean.

But also with the buy outs, you have the opportunity to begin to lower your exposure and release more equity.

I can see now we may also develop a formula to work out if a hedge is balanced. They will never be perfectly balanced nor do we want them to, we are now committed to creating that gap where we always have more money on the side going up, because we’re adding, big positions if we have to, we knocking out profitable positions on the other side so less value is falling – because we’re not only taking profit, we are needling away to bring our old equity back.

However one thing is easy to see: which way the price is moving. That’s where you’ll be dropping your money. You put your money down on the side that’s going up.

To visit a more realistic scenario, in the next 2 weeks, the euro goes to parity. That costs $5k. The Aussie goes to .75, which costs another $1

The plan appears to be overbearing on the USD, but now it seems I will be following an aggressive hedging strategy on all the euro pairs, and a 75% strategy on the USD pairs.

I think we have overstimated how effective our mini hedges are against higher currencies. meanwhile on the other side with the lower currencies, we’ve overshot and created a future glimpse: hedges both sides, stuck in the middle unable to throw down good positions.

Ridiculous. not only can you throw in good positions, you should because at least you located close to one of the hedges, and the recovery point. The only solution is to build up both sides.

What we’re seeing is that we need to move in on AUDEUR and USDGBP and put down a $30k hedge on each one to stop it getting out of control. with AUDEUR, I think we’re confident and the strategy there could be leaning in and far as we can, at least 70k and hopefully to $100k to really outpace the other side and make some interest saving buy backs.

These would be effective buy backs because we are no longer competing with a large falling object, we’ve pulled the weight off the momentum.

With USDGBP I am really hoping to see some wind back on that so I will play it quite conventionally. It has gone from -$4k to almost -$11k in a fortnight and you can almost sense that it has created the most silent damage. At the same time I realise to protect myself, I need a $100k down, I just don’t want to put that kind of money down when the pound is still robust long term and it can draw back offering me enough room to breath.

So it becomes much like USDEUR, but for the opposite reason, im unafraid to put down big positions because I need to build a big hedge, not because I am confident or behind the trend. Of course just like with AUDEUR if I can pick up good money on the hedge, I can knock out a few toxic positions – both are excellent candidates because of carry costs and the fact the fact that the euro doesn’t have much of a future, it could 18 months before we see those positions come back.

USDEUR is a vital pair, balancing these two will be a challenge. At least there’s conviction in the downside we can back as we attempt to over bear and overtake.

USDAUD and GBPEUR are in the same boat. they have woundback. We have leaned in a little to far, we are seeing what the future looks like. We may have to add to both sides to get things cracking.

We can add the value of both sides to perceive whether our strategy is succeeding. That’s ultimately what it is. Are we able to bring these debt costs down.

But the USDAUD I think represents the best opportunity to see what happens when you push the margins up, and I will be looking to add on the downside here and slowly build up both sides.

It is probable that if I am not comfortable with equity levels I will instigate small hedges for NZ and CAD, as I can see now I can stop my account being fried and if I can do that I will get rich. It seems only a matter of time.

But then since I made so much profit gaining the experience and insight doing that this week, what awaits when I’m not under huge pressure, and the hedge allows me to just keep feeding huge positions in as the rallies kick off, knowing that each time the rally stalls and reverses, I am snatching my profits, while the other side need not really be attended to until the rally has settled.

When the equity begins to grow again, because we’re not sensitive to big shifts, we can weigh in with more leveraged positions, we can double down from that point.

When big shifts happen, especially when I’m asleep, a lot of work is done. some profits have been hit, and we decide whether they are moving forward and to add, or moving back and to sell.

On the other side, a big drop has occurred without us being silly enough to want to add any positions, so that area is not in play. hopefully it is lower in value and losing less value, so you are waiting when it appears to be rising again and youre ready to add all that value back on.

When you’re working with bigger numbers, these drops are part of the play because the bigger the moves, the more numbers are shifted into new tight ranges, knowing youre in a tight range and being able to jack up your positions sizes because you can always counter it as you build and build, well that could make things really exciting especially when the australians get on one of their rally spikes and you can throw in big money knowing that whatever is left after the event, you just fix in with a hedge and sit tight and play along until the next adventure.

Yes of course, if I increased my exposure then My margin could lift by at least another $500 and that’s money I need to have free for breathing room. Under the new system, $10k breathing room is even safer than it used to be, but as the amounts involved grow bigger we have to be prudent.

But to take my debt from somewhere around $55k to $80k in a few months WITH the hedges on, you’re going to be chunking in some big positions, and easily meeting the goals we have set to provide the finances to get our next set of plans moving.

Forex Hedge to the Edge

Saturday, March 14th, 2015

Yes the promo company doing auckland cd dvd duplication and poster printing is still going, but I am also studying deep into forex to learn if something I discovered is special or a dream.

We have been passing through a very challenging but ultimately illuminating period of trading forex and studying financial trends and techniques.

So we need to paint the picture here of what we’re facing and how we’re going to deal with it.

The very worst that could happen is probably double what we’re in for, and we would need at least another $20-30k. Exactly what we said at first.

Now, that that possibility has eventuated, we are revising out worst projection to having it happen twice.

This is just so statistically unlikely and would be the most intense event in currency trading history. We would have to roll our hedges out and our whole new strategy would be based on balancing the hedges as we return to tiny positions that don’t upset the balance.

If a postion is going up, we must buy. If a position is going down, we must sell. Sometimes that’s not easy, things are slow, points become congested.

Part of this paradigm is that when big moves happen, you are still adding small positions where you think the movement is, it’s just you’re hoping for one of the old positions from former times to be hit, so you can take it, and replace it with modesty, knowing if it goes up you’ll keep grabbing profits for the kitty, if not, you’ll swap to the other side and draw the benefits of a softer slide

You’ve got 80k on both sides, they’re balanced, and you’re putting in tiny positions as you move along, so soon enough it’s 85k vs 80k and your equity has actually started going down even as you haven’t reached the far point where you can start taking positions from the other side.

But you would have been working the other side the whole time anyway. It would be $85k too, because you would have put down positions and as they were profitable, you wouldn’t be grabbing them unless you were in a congestion pattern.

Now we are seeing the true benefit of hedging. When you get it right, you win. When you get it wrong, you simply have to match with a hedge.

This is a fascinating experiment because even in heavy action, the equity will remain serene, it is the hedges that are moving and sometimes it may be hard for us to see or sense where the movement is pushing the losses out.

What I am hoping is that the equity will change so slowly, it will never be a panic. Movement isn’t what we are looking for, It’s change. When a movement ends at it’s time to start selling that side off, and buying the other side back.

We become able to focus on selling when the market is moving, and only needing to weigh in with big positions riding on the back of the prevailing trend unfolding. If we get it wrong, we simply counter hedge again, so eventually you get the opposite of my australian issue.

rather than being too stretched, in a congested pattern it gets boxed in, soon it must break out, meaning one side of the equation becomes profitable. when that break loses momentum, you nab the profit, and put down your marker buy on both sides.

The problem of course is what I’m facing, living on the edge. You can’t carry a huge hedge to the edge and then leave it there for all time.

Like anything, we must sense the pullback, and get out.

Or; the other option is to outride the hedge. You put 80k on the edge to hedge against 80k on the otherside, then the market turns. Nothing happens to your equity, you debt is just changing sides. So while the sand flows through the hourglass, you back the other trend.

What we do have now that might never be so obvious is the strong USD. We can be very confident nothing is protecting the EUR from more USD damage until the trend is called off.

So on all EUR and USD positions, I suddenly have hedges.

USDEUR and AUDEUR will be the only full hedges.

The USDEUR pits strength vs weakness and large depreciation, where vulnerability exists, we must hedge.

GBP and AUD vs USD we go 3 quarters as the GBP will regain strength, and the AUD doesn’t have so far to go to its target of .73-.75 also, it does not have the same depreciation cost.

Even to .73 would only cost me $3k. GBP is not so weak as to sustain heavy damage without a fight, and it does have a huge depreciation cost. It will turn and I should be able to get $2k back at least, and that makes all the difference where I’m at right now.

If I can survive a few more weeks I might just make it.

Leaving GBP vs EUR, which has a trend, but has also given us out first taste of what the future looks like lost between two towers of hedge, not particularly sure where the lossed are leaking out. We know it depreciates faster on the pound side.

If this is the future then one thing matters – that we make money on the movement.

A danger presents itself if we use our old scalping ways. We heave forward, we take out scalp, it heaves forward again, except now we are out of balance and the equity has dropped.

But now a trend exists. We put down our position. Thus equalling the hedge again, and the process begins again except now the trend will be closing in on other positions. and once we take 2 positions, the trend will be firm, and our positions doubled.

Until the reverse. That’s when we open on the other side with whatever number will balance the hedge. After a tremendous spike, $10k position could go green for profit, and we may snatch $5k and as the tide goes out. Does that mean we kick off with $5k?

We have to feel the movement, the main trend gets full, the counter trend half. Reversing a spike is not a trend. We have to see it’s more likely that a lesser position will return to the trend, lose value, and that’s when the $5k goes in on the other side, the one it was originally taken from.

Let’s reverse. A scalp position loses money, we don’t touch it except maybe a soft marker position, we put the money on the other side to begin the congestion pattern. If that rises, we take the scalp, and wait for it to rise again to offer a trend. If the congestion position falls and the soft marker rises, we either scalp the marker if it against trend, or lean in if it’s on trend.

Basically, subtley manipulating the balance to squeeze out the profit, yet never in danger of blowing your account because no matter how big the moves, on a $100k pair, It could go from $10k on one side, full to the other side, and suddenly cost $12k, but for such a huge movement, $2k is nothing, now that we’re hedging, we don’t have to play this game where we have this huge pool of equity sitting there as protection.

The hedge is our protection. We don’t need $50k at least free on a $100k account, my account will be $100k within 3 months, and given my hedge protects me, as long as I have a good $20k buffer, I will be able to build confidence that my hedges are super tight and barely move $1k a day.

Again I can’t help but see how bad things happening have led to realisation exactly when they were needed, that unlocked a new level.

Blowing my account made me commit harder, which made me ready for the onslaught that came, which led me to thinking about hedging as a means of harnessing a wild out of control trend that was ravaging you, which readied for the next, greater, more sustained barrage, that leads me here to now. Trying to really hammer out the thoughts of how you can use hedging to stop an account from frying.

It makes me think I should be doing the forex version of meditating on a mantra – forgetting about profit taking altogether and focus purely on keeping my equity as still and motionless as possible for then, I am truly in balance.

Up until now, aiming for anything less than 50% equity seemed like a fool’s game. The market could shift bringing all your bad positions down on your head. Now, being dedicated to hedging your equity only ever grows because you are grabbing any profitable positions that appear to be falling, and only buying on a trend that is rising.

But the scary thing of course, like I keep saying is that it does unleash potential for huge earnings. I’ve proven this week that the level I’m at can generate thousands of dollars in a week. Now I have demonstrated how I don’t actually need to add money to my account to stop it frying.

I believe that I am slowly coming to understand how once the hedges are in place it is possible to begin to generate profit and build equity on top of the debt without it ever being able to rise significantly. If the debt is rising on one side, you just have to put more on the other side

It’s just basic hedging, it was just I had a belief that if I didn’t cover my losses coming from the far shore, I would never produce more profit without sustaining am equal loss. We simply have to correct.

It feels quite close to my original thoughts on the matter.

But what it is if a currency is rising you are adding to the position, if it’s dropping, you are taking away, that way the other side begins to rise faster than this side was originally dropping, and so there is excess equity, especially if you get in a small marker trade that rises, because then you also took a small profit from each side.

sometimes if you become super confident about a trend like I am on USDEUR, you can go into a super position where the speed you’re moving on one side as a huge position moves up totally outstrips the other side moving down, and you can pocket a really big gain. If you get it wrong, the hedge means you will be spared immediate danger, but you would still have to take the loss if the trade went bad.

The fact that it’s put down against a backdrop of a hedge means the results won’t be that great either way, but equity becomes more valuable when it’s harder to shakedown.

It will be hard to get right, I can’t imagine I won’t have to add more money, but to me it will much less. A big event usually only moves $2-3k on my equity, it’s just every event has moved the same way, and I didn’t hedge enough, I believed I would come back and my equity would be returned and released.

But I shouldn’t imagine it moves under $1k down. And if it moves up, that can only mean we have some positions to trim which offer us the opportunity to stay up.

I am beginning to imagine this is a better system.

I guess what it is is that hedging guarantees it will take a while to get your money back, there is no reversal. but you’ve got a better chance of getting it back.

It’s a pact with the devil. Things won’t get better but they won’t get worse. You’re living on the edge.

The price of getting it wrong of course is what we’ve experienced, one side falls dramatically, you’ve settled for a tiny profit, nothing like the movement on highly leveraged positions and so you are wearing the loss waiting for the trend to reverse, which is all very well except my trend has reversed for the whole time I’ve been trading, it’s simply swung violently to one side, I couldn’t have faced worse conditions.

We have two choices. Don’t hedge, and pray somehow the trend reverses, or hedge, and hope that although I won’t need much more money to stop my account frying, I’ll need to be patient and attentive to work my profit. I think I can do it.

Auckland Pirates and Forex Video Productions

Saturday, March 14th, 2015

Well for a start the pirate auckland birthday party entertainer has really taken off!

Maybe there was a google shake up in the search engine rankings that suddenly made my kids stuff take off – I had 4 bookings made this week, it was great. It means while I’m working on my trading I’ll have friday nights in and saturdays doing the kid’s parties

I guess that is one part of my business I am happy to let grow because it is established as an earner, it’s not particularly challenging other than the physical demands, but also provides potential long term for me to jack the thing up.

Of course being a children’s entertainer is not just about making money. Right now for me it’s all about the aspects that balance out with my forex trading.

Forex trading is pure speculative capitalism, there’s no craft or human aspect to it – outside of understanding the market flows and having a tight psychological game.

The only two ideas that I am serious about right now outside of my core business and trading is pirates and video production, and in regards to video prodction I am really using that as a lens to develop 3 areas I’m committed to: pirates, forex and my artist promotions.

It’s about limiting my exposure to projects so I don’t get stretched out and end up achieving nothing. The overlap means that I can be working ideas that complement each other and have overlap areas where I can make progress over two fronts.

Here I have a little forex video which is helping me get inspiration for how to produce forex videos. I just grabbed this clip because i’m looking at ideas of doing my own forex show.

But I am barely keeping up on here with new thinking and new development.

My forex trading has definitely gone next level now.

What happened was I was forced to implement my new theories before I really had a chance to think them through properly, because that’s how insane the situation has become, it has far overshot what would have been my realistic appraisal fora worst case scenario.

Obviously I was not paying attention to the news but I have learnt from that mistake and have been studying trends. What I didn’t recognise was how deep the trends could reach, but there is enough to suggest I couldn’t have predicted things would get this bad, but because I have been modest, and I do have deep resources I can survive something no one else could have.

So I need to be smart and start coming up with the answers.

I can see how different techniques work in different scenarios. Switching technique depending on what the action and trends are like, or using one technique for one pair and a different one for another depending on the type of movement taking place.

It’s all about experience of how the markets move.

I need to stay on top of my forex thinking, and I need to start talking about new worst case scenarios and what my contingencies will be.

So first let’s go back.

***

I have had my first major wipe out in trading and I am sorely chastised.

But it happens to everyone.

Part of the cleansing process of my new resolutions is to see a way forward, and in business and in art, we know using other people is the key.

We know we need forex funding to push forward other priorities. But humans and markets are unpredictable and hard to control. But the aspect I can control is limiting the amount of jobs I am taking on. It’s not just freeing up time, it’s freeing up headspace from worrying about issues that are not of priority.

But I think we also have to accept we have too many ideas. Stress caused in the business is an example of an obligation I am maintaining without receiving a significant enough benefit from the stress and energy required.

Much like the pirates also, I am seeing that I am doing too much, and the things that are hard are the ones to go first.

Gigs, CD’s for musicians, Pirates. OThese use energy and focus.

The main issue is paying my bills when I am trying not too work so I can clear my head for more macro organisation of my life. In terms of aristotle, where are the goblins coming to cause me pain? Well if you didn’t have to worry about CD/DVD so much, you might be surprised.

I feel it is a good idea just to mitigate the flow of jobs while I am in a vital transition phase. It is vital that I am available and committed to my property and trading issues, but also I see opportunities to focus on removing stress.

What I am hoping is that by doing less work, I get other things done, which make me more positive. Finishing up video projects will get me more grounded and focused on how I want to move forward.

Having more time allows more maintenance opportunities to get everything prepared how it should be.

I should mention it was secondary account that wiped out, now my primary account, there would be no way of shrugging it off if I blew up my main account.

I am staying with this account even though it was the turkish situation that did me in in the end because I like the way there system is set up for the turkish interest payments. What I am thinking is that I am aiming in a year or two to have 50k in there, and $200k worth of turkish positions making $1800 a month. That’s a $21k return a year on 50 maybe $60k. So you could have $200k in there, and hold $600k in positions and make $5500 a month out of that.

Yes, it would tie up your capital but $66k return on $200k is just too good. What it means is that you have a true passive income – well you might check it every day I guess just to be prudent.

I did a little research it is as it seems. Yes it’s a great investment, but not when the ass drops out of the turkish currency as it just has, and well, I lost grands.

But that was because of inconsistencies in the platform which showed me and taught me a lesson about how an oversight can destroy your whole game. We have been guilty of oversights.

I’m just reading over what I wrote in my last entry because after a very dry and very modest last couple of months coping with the eurozone problems, a transition back into decent earnings became a very sudden and violent switch.

I thought as there was little data this week, it would be quiet, but it’s been the opposite, there’s no reason for traders to hold their breath and they just went in. Now I see why events are even more significant because they quieten markets in anticipation.

The catalysts were there a week ago when the process began with jobs friday, the USD establishing a huge gain on it’s already strong position on much better than expected employment data.

I can see here it was almost a discussion focusing on why I have continually renewed my commitment to trading given that there is so many lifestyle advantages – that once I could get to the point of establishing steady income without stress I am not tied to my business in auckland with all the stress of the clients, I can focus on trading at particular times and events to lessen the time I spend trading, and I can afford to pay other people to do all my other work.

3 Reasons why I felt focusing on trading has been my mission.

I am starting to think the only solution is to go even deeper to a new unprecedented level. Accept I need to put up another $10k to bring my account to $65k because the level at which I can establish myself earning around $2k a week

Yes breaking my term deposits costs me hundreds. Yes depositing $10k will cost me $250 just in fees.

But this is about changing my whole lifestyle from working 20 serious hours and 20 relaxed hours for little more than a grand, with lots of stress dealing with customer service vs. working about 6 serious hours and 20 relaxed hours, for $1500-$2k a week, with decreasing stress as my equity builds.

To have enough money not to really work except on easy jobs because it breaks up trading and avoid stress; To have enough equity that blowing my account is simply not likely; to have enough money on the table that I don’t have to work it constantly to hit my targets and instead focus on wed-fri night

Give up on the days altogether, especially earlier in the week unless theres an australian event, and try to learn to only check it once an hour at most over that time. That does mean being up at 10 on monday to sell on any weekend reactions.

What I am saying is that if this any other opportunity, playing for those stakes are definitely worthwhile.

The other thing about trading that makes it not gambling is skills for life.

I am learning the game. I am learning about these risk events. I am learning about the persistence of trends.

I realised this morning that even if I fried my main account, I am in this for life. Through dedicated persistence over 6 months, I have learned to

But lets move onto the next problem. It’s into july. Say Ive got $100k account with -$80k unprofitable positions. How do I get my money back?

Cool it down. By focusing on lowering your margin – that is, selling more than buying, eventually over time, your equity will rise. Of course by lowering your margin, you lower your profits. But if you’re already kicking $3k a week, you can probably handle a hair cut in the interests of prudence.

I can’t prioritise prudence because I’m still hungry for that $2k baseline level. When I get there, then I can look at doing housework, picking off individual positions. I know when I get to the other side I will be able to look at writing off my past sins.

The market has been very hard for my style in this period because I rely on up and down movement, whereas this year its just be one trend mainly.

That I guess is the point I reached when I decided I needed to change my style.

The euro was flying down terrifyingly so I just worked crazy hedges. I had already started to thrash out some ideas about hedges on my business blog which is becoming increasingly less about promotions and more about trading, and after the crazy dive began, I realised I was going to have to put my new found ideas to the test.

The highs were pounded, I laid down bigger and bigger positions knowing I had the trend behind me, but always selling off when the reversals came so I was left holding less positions as the price withdrew, and throwing down bids recklessly as the price drove higher. It was so epic.

I had really got to the stage of having this real game like interaction with trading as if I’m trying to clock the level, and has been like that this week.

Trading just taking over everything and yet I can’t hep but think this is a turning point a huge battle has been fought.

This just flies in the face of the technique I was using last year of trailing off when a currency reached it’s peak. Now I just keep loading on more positions until it starts falling, then I rapidly pull out of as many of those positions as possible, knowing that any slip or retracement will be brief – the trend is quite clear. The euro will be hammered all the way to parity. Every chance it rallies is another chance to buy shorts, and ride them down again, so that your hedge is rising faster than your original positions are falling. The trick is to pull out before the reversal and take your profit, and let the reversal ease out your profit back to you knowing that the reversal also offers you the opportunity to hit the trend once again.

So firstly there’s a new technique for making money when the trend is smashing new highs.

There is also this aspect of hedging and when you’ve got deep hedges it means you can take risk. Yes you carry a perpetual debt maybe running $50k deep, but eventually you outpace it, much like a mortgage.

And finally, the new possibilities that open up once you can grab this profit and use it to liquidate specific rotten positions strategically to tidy your account up and prevent issues down the road with momentous shifts.

But when you’re hedging, why lose money on a ratty position, when you can hedge against it?

Because our people want to see our equity come home.

But there’s so much to say here with everything I am experiencing and learning . . . I will continue soon . . . because it’s time to to take the hedge to the edge.

Forex Hedging Video Duplication Auckland

Monday, March 9th, 2015

Just time for some forex journalling. I just journal this stuff so that I can clear my head, get some google juice going on, and maybe start to build into these ideas I’ve started to have about a forex video presentation.

If you want forex tutoring or forex skype support let me know I am trying to get this business idea in shape and I could use some test cases.

So:

Last night – jobs friday, traditionally the biggest event of the forex month when US announces it’s jobs data – was so wild and crazy, it was my best night in trading yet, pulling in over $700.

Now I can see that my activity around risk events makes up about two thirds of my profits, I would make probably two thirds of my profit on thursday and friday night. Which means I need to basically tell people I work now on thursday and friday nights, and tell pirate party people that I am already booked for saturday morning but I can do lunch or after lunch or even sunday.

So the prize I am playing for here is that I am not only am I gunning in focus for a regular level of earnings I could live and travel off – a level set just slightly above where I’ve been able to reach at my peak – there is another prize in that I simply don’t need to commit as much time to it.

I am starting to think it may happen quite quickly, because I have invested so much into it, once we experience the relief of either a market reversal or a point where my earnings can begin overtaking the losses I’ve sustained, it could all begin gathering pace, the tipping will have occurred where my earnings and equity is rising and I no longer need to take the same level of risk to earn the same amount, and so I can ease in to a happy medium of taking slightly less risk and earning slightly more.

I also have had some new thoughts about hedging. Hedging is the reason I’ve done so well this week – because I adopted big bold hedges on the EURUSD, I was able to cash that in last night for the bulk of my $700 gain.

But instead of cashing in and scalping my hedges, what would have happened if I’d just weighed in with say, a big $20k hedge, rolling out $400 profit on a 2% rise on just one single trade, insulating me from more losses on the other side, but rather than tapping out, I simply watched it rise and fall as insurance that I would not fry my account, and like a seasoned trader with brains, riding it out until the clear signs of bottoming and reversal appear.

Then you can book your profit, and watch your unprofitable positions continue the rally, until meeting resistance at which point a slightly smaller hedge may be the answer. You’ve already taken profit, now youre also trying to wind down the risk youre still exposed to.

Yes it means losing part of your profit. It also means sleeping easy knowing only an unprecedented swiss floor drop style shift could ever shake you down.

The bad news is, what if it goes the other way? Well the bulk of your unprofitable positions are still reduced, you may lose $400 on this trade, but on the other side, youre equity would rise by some $2k, making it easier to breathe again.

Looking at the news predictions, it does not look good. We’re now talking parity within months, which could cost me $10k. It looks like our parity will give us the chance to test these theories.

What would happen if I backed the $100k hedge? See the idea here is that we are no longer scalping. We are riding for insurance until we see the trend start to wear out, which could be a month. We don’t get to take the profit. We have to put the money on the table. We have to move past the psychological concept of doubling down, understanding that having money in the hedge is always safer than having the money off the table, surely?

You cant even say youre in greater risk of having a hacker close all your positions or some madness – if you have the hedge, it never goes to an extreme where you could be caught in any worse situation than you would be otherwise. Yes you have less of a margin. But your ability to lose ground – or gain ground starts to be sluggish.

But now, when things are extreme, it is time for extreme tactics. This will be a mess I have to mop up when I get to a place where the market is less volatile but I can weigh in more heavily having built equity and learnt how to use hedging to put the brakes on my account.

So what’s the fear here? It can’t be that the trend continues and the hedge accumulates, stopping our account falling until reverses are signalled and the other currencies cool down also and I can start nabbing the profits.

Or I go $50k into a hedge and the whole thing turns around on me, we go back to 1.11c and I’ve lost $500 on that position even though the euro cooling down has actually jumped my account right up in terms of equity, I’m in that space where the account can’t drop or rise much because it’s held up now on both sides.

The price will never rise as fast as it’s fallen and it will take years probably to go back over $1.20, so as soon as you get off the margin, you can play heavy on the USD knowing the price will never drop that much, youre always bigging up when the USD drops, and you will learn to sit on that level on the other side also, as it settles into a range, you learn where the range is – if it breaks the range, downside, dont buy or go back to placeholders.

Or switched my style on the USD, and go traditional with stops. yes I may lose $20, $50 at a time, but it would hardly hurt my equity because as the USD drops, my bad euro positions rise, and I’m covered.

Also we go with the averages, that say we were modest and went with $10k and an hour later, we’re up $5-10, so we add another, and soon it has 4, 5 layers, then it starts dropping. We only take the profit on the 2nd and maybe 3rd to last ones when the last one hits the stop at $10.

If you get 3 going, you might be already $20 up by the time you lose your first $10. It’s going to be interesting introducing this into the mix. What this does though is allows us to build into the position as it moves foreward, but if it reverses, we shouldn’t be stuck with more than $20k.

If we were stuck with $100k, the equity would cease to shift, or possibly even go down slightly when the USD drops. Of course though, the USD would drop elsewhere giving me relief. If we weren’t so far against the USD in the whole of my other account, I wouldn’t have blown it. The account with the hedging lives on.

But the beautiful thing about going that far in, is that if it does rise, you can take the profit, because profit is already more than the cost of the drop. That’s locked in whichever way you go, but you still want to catch the reverse, and more importantly you don’t want a renegade $50k position running around loose.

$30k pulls back 5% it’s $1500, and the euro pressure is like $3500, plus we’d get in some profits. But if $80k pulls back it’s $4k, so your equity actually goes down, however, there needs to be a massive shift take place to make that even start to hurt, a shift that would take months to play out. In that time . . . especially now like I say, the transition to earning good money, so that in that 2 months, you build equity on top of your hedges, knowing that hedges protect you from any major movement. In fact the hedges make major movements beneficial as you can cash in.

So I have begun some experiments, considering of how it becomes when you’ve got large hedges on either side, it’s starting to make me think I have really missed how hedging is the missing ingredient here. Sure, if you want the security of getting your money, big hedges are not the call. But if you’re prepared to play long term, I can see how this may be a significant development because it makes it next to impossible for me to blow my account, but what’s more impressive, is that when we play around the middle, and not on the outside, we can play by the same rules, but we can go bananas.

I’m play the same game here with the EURUSD, riding it down, and as I go I’m picking up positions I bought on the retracement the market still goes up and down, but if you take bigger positions, which you can when you’ve got an uptrend with a massive hedge going the other way, you start to pull in bigger profits, and yet the peril of taking the bigger position is mitigated by the huge wall of hedge.

This is honestly a bit of a revelation.

It suggests that when you’ve got $75k on both sides and you’re in the middle, you can launch a $50k position, and you can ride it $500 into the future or whatever,

And then on the other side. And the other side, what stops you? The margin eventually. But with hedging I could easily have 10 x what I have down now all balanced against each other like I am a lunatic.

The fact that you can use hedging to increase your leverage even further means that if you get caught somewhere bad and the trend reverses, you can then counter hedge.

You put $20k down each way in the middle. You profit off one. Then you do it both ways again. there’s half a chance it will go back and you will be playing with your original position. So you buy one on the other side. And it goes. Because of your deep hedges, it doesn’t really make a big impact on your equity. until you’ve swung to a horrible mid point where you’re carrying a double load.

Is that where it begins again? I don’t think so because at some point before then, the profit was have become adequate.

But again, it’s combining a mathematical technique with political and economic insight that provides the edge. I know the USD will keep pushing forward, so every time it falls back I load on the positions and collect. One day it will reverse for good, and the positions left there will be pricey.

But it will take so damn long, months for that situation to arise and what is it? Just the same situation. Except all that time has passed, all those profits have been taken, and all the tricks applied. You still are down $50k. But it’s only taking you several months to make that now.

It’s exactly as I first imagined it except far more complex. I still see the basic concept of balance. But when add all the leveraging and all the hedging, you get something pretty crazy, this swirling pool of money from which you draw your little profits. It’s magic.

Forex Video Reproductions Auckland

Friday, March 6th, 2015

Hey it’s me Matt here at Kurb and I’m still using this blog to thrash out new ideas in business covering video production, media reproduction such as cd dvd duplication and my bold experiments in forex which having stalled somewhat, have certainly not been curtailed.

I’m writing here facing more dilemmas from where I am experiencing very slow but steady progress in forex while other aspects of new frontiers in auckland media business such as cd dvd duplication and video production services, or more moving to more exciting business opportunities in entertainment and talent management.

My outlook is of course that forex is funding. If forex is going well, we have the money to push out. However if forex is going well, it also means we have the money to not even be bothered – we already have money!

We are facing a situation where vanity is a known issue.

There’s no need to end up doing anything that ends up being unenjoyable or unfulfilling even if it does end up making money. If it doesn’t make money and I don’t enjoy it, then it is pointless.

I love doing my pirate entertainment shows, but I am so exhausted after entertaining the kids, it has begun to seem like the pay off is to demanding.

My interests in eastern europe are also becoming part of the mix. Not least that if I’m in eastern europe I can’t offer cd dvd duplication and cd printing services. Or be a kids entertainer.

But there’s the attraction in my forex offerings – I can offer forex coaching again, wherever I am on the world. I can get a simple product going, and then extend from there. Would the eastern european opportunities become an upsell?

I could make it an upsell of my forex package. I’d say hey let’s turn this $50 40 minutes into $70 for an hour, and we will include ukrianian strategies in the conversation in that I am offering you this one service – $US70 for an hour guiding you ever closer to your dream life.

How many clients would I want? 6 at the most, I’d say.

What is becoming apparent is that this is all, again, vanity. It’s not truly about a business model based on profit, it’s something convenient for me to do that establishes my brand. Which means it comes back to me being able to afford to pay people which means progress being made in forex.

An important part is that my consultations are not some huge effort. I can collect $500 a week not really doing that much excepts rambling while I trade away.

I still want to carry through with pirate plan as it is if only to build out the brand, even though I’m not sure about doing the school shows any more. I will still do school shows, but only on the road, maybe focusing on smaller schools so we can do that tour we always talked about.

In terms of my music interests, that was never seen as following a profit model.

Beyond that I don’t think there’s anything. Our progress to be made is in extending the brand of our forex and pirate ventures The key is employing people to push these areas, especially the admin and back end processes, the important point to make is that we are relying on forex to fund it.

FEMALE FOREX VIDEO PRESENTER AUCKLAND

I am looking for an female presenter to work alongside me developing a regular – maybe fortnightly moving to weekly – youtube bulletin on financial markets.

I believe a big gap exists for financial reporting that is a little bit lighter to digest for people who don’t understand investing and finance thoroughly.

Initially your job is to do 5-10 minute news desk style interviews with me and stop me from rambling too much or getting off point, and then we’d be expanding your role from there.

So I am looking for someone wanting experience really working on developing great presentation and presentation skills along with a basic knowledge of financial news.

I would be looking at paying you once we have a routine and flow established, so it comes down to how long it takes you to settle into the role. But what I am emphasising here is that because this is related to finance and investment, the most lucrative profession in the world, you will be developing the kinds of demonstrable skills and knowledge that open doors to great career opportunities and associations, especially for those who are wanting to establish themselves as more than just a pretty face, but also possessing the skills to handle sophisticated subject matter in a professional manner.

This will initially be a modest project I am looking to develop with a team over time. There will be trial and error, hits and misses.

My name is Matt and I have been running a promotions company for the last 8 years, over which time I have also been working in children’s entertainment.

In the last few years I have posted many listing on star now for music videos and funny projects I have been working on, which has given a great opportunity to build my experience.

Having sold part of my business I am continuing to follow a whole host of video projects as I develop my skills slowly, building up networks, contacts, testing ideas.

I am also more heavily involved in investing as I have built my portfolio up after selling part of my business.

While still having several avenues in video production operating and expanding, my next project I am looking at a regular youtube bulletin covering world financial and investment reports, starting with once a week or fortnight.

As I said most financial bulletins are far too technical and dry and don’t offer viewers concrete suggestions they can use to guide their investment.

I would like to have a female offsider who is interested in developing their presentation and interviewing skills work with me on presenting this and slowly developing it. I would also welcome others interested in a production role for experience as there would be no pay for those production roles initially until we were established.

You do not have to have excellent financial knowledge, you will need an interest and motivation however, we are after all attempting to make a boring subject more light and easier to engage with.

Now this may not as exciting and fun as some of the other projects I have going, but it does create a really great opportunity for experience where you can build and demonstrate the sort of skills that could provide you with a very lucrative career break, or perhaps the concept could really take.

Needless to say if you were interested in some of the lighter stuff we do to balance it out, music vids, children’s vids, I’m more than happy to look at that with you.

But this could be a great opportunity for a young woman wanting to do the work to develop solid skills.

If you can demonstrate your ability in these youtube clips to present information and reports, interviews on financial subject matter, you will be developing valuable skills and experience with direct connection to the most lucrative profession in the world. There are most certainly opportunities here for someone ambitious and professional to break out.

***

We need a proper forex review, given that I am now much more reluctant about the auckland housing market, I am seeing I have more liquidity available for forex.

I am advancing a new double down strategy, Believing that it will put us into a weekly $1500-3000 range, where we can relax and ride out.

We are genuinely prepared to commit another $25k. Margin will be lifted to $2k, favouring USD, GBP, NZD, TRY, steering clear of EUR and less so AUD.

What I believe you will find is that should the market reverse, you would see only a situation where the loss stays the same but the profit still rises. As the positions on the down side reflect much the far end of the upside. It maybe that $10-20k loss that can never be recouped accumulates slowly on both sides, at which point we become permanently hedged to some extent and with a $200k account the numbers in the middle get big, and the profits rise, and a little 999 out on the edge from 3 years ago costing $100 isn’t so hard to simply liquidate.

But the more likely scenario is the continued fall of EUR to 1.05 in a year and AUS to .73.

At present, that could cost me $11k.

Our strategy is to go in there and start having the $2k weeks we’ve been waiting for, so that the pace of our creeping profit can out weigh the swinging loss. I’m starting to sense we are getting close to that place where I can make $1500-$2k a week and yet we could not lose more than another $10k, call it $15k since we would also lean in more to EUR and AUD positions that could fall.

If I merely doubled down, it would take 6 months for the same thing to happen. However, there simply isn’t room for these currencies to move as much as they already have, especially since we are now aware of the euro and aussie weakness.

If the USD was to suddenly tumble it would have to be months from now to allow us to have put ourselves into a difficult situation that we do not benefit, we merely swing, taking the profits. Our profit rises, our loss stays practically the same.

We know there are certain pairs we can load up on.

What am I really scared of? Some massive global bullshit going down where it becomes apparent that maybe greece is leaving the euro and china is hit by reduced growth so that the aussie and kiwi are hit meaning both currencies topple down, aussie to .70 and euro to parity. That would seriously hurt. Like, $20k hurt.

But that would never happen like it did before, it wouldn’t happen in 2 days. It COULD happen in 2 days. We would survive.

Yet are we so afraid of the hedge? All we need to is buy $50,000 worth. The margin would be $200 tops. We’d make money. In fact it’s an incentive to make big counter moves because even if you lose, you don’t really lose. Sure at times you’ll head into the no mans land where a big drop happened but slowly the whole thing will fill out and smart trends will be further accounted for.

Trends are trends. We can weigh heavily into the USD knowing its natural momentum is trending up, even though it’s so high, we know it will leave an expensive trail behind it when it finally recedes, but what will things look like when that finally happens? I’m saying the process takes months, and in those months, $10k, $20k has been earned, and the old numbers just aren’t as scary as they used to be. Sure, I still owe $40k, but if I’ve made $20k in a couple of months, You’ll see the relative significance of that number start to disappear – it’s hard to appreciate that right now when profits remain more modest and I’ve felt the burn of heavy market strikes – but when things even out a bit more, when my account equity heads above $20k and we can rock a $3k margin knowing we will pull $2-3k a week.

But also getting smarter about hedging, we know that just as the USD is strong, the EUR is weak. Any reverse on the USDEUR is a chance to buy up before it inevitably heads up again because there is nothing supporting the Euro. Maybe for a month we’ll head up on a retracement, and we’ll be buying up extravagantly knowing theres about a 3 quarter chance it’ll be coming back like that. Or more! The trend is that the USD will rise and the EUR will fall, the AUD is slightly stronger than the EUR, and the GBP slightly stronger than the AUD, but in amongst that there isn’t really a certainty.