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Internet Jobs Intern

Thursday, March 3rd, 2016

I have continued to use this blog to throw together ideas about how to build a promo team.

The point I reached was that it may be a lot simpler than I thought – that is the plan may be more simple, but the work involved is unavoidable.

You’re never going to find employees under $20 p/hr who know what theyre doing. Everyone and anyone is going to need training, so you may as well accept training as a necessary evil.

If you are going to find good people to work with you have to take them on as interns, pay them something, at least $10, and train them up.

Next comes new opportunities in music management because this is how business works, we can have as many little dreams as we like about the business we would like to run, but we need to deliver services that artists want to pay for in order to make money, so getting clients and tailoring services to them can help us create a service artists will want to pay for and that means we can pay staff and build a team that is capable of functioning on a high level.

How do I think this is going to help me? The sooner I have established music industry work, that is at least $500 a week, the sooner I can pay someone to jump into that role. Having one or two clients is the start of something that can be built on. But in reality I am only paying them to work for me, but I am leveraging my position so that as long as I can provide the work for them, I can get all my work done as well. What does this involve?

Well the website, maintaining the website development, and the social media tasks we talked about this, content, advertising, publicity.

The website you can charge $500 for and ell them there’s an annual fee of $100. Social media and publicity you have to bill like a lawyer. It shouldn’t take an intern an hour to update social media.
How long should an advertising campaign take?

I play the client, I will tell you how much it’s worth to me. A good ad campaign? 3-4 hours. Research for publicity and bookings? Hour by hour. How long should it take? I look at the results.

I charge my staff at $30 and I charge myself at $60 s they have a choice. Of course this is actually $20 and $40 american, I might make mine $50 american it gives them a nice choice and lets them know that they can have quality if they prefer that choice for jobs like copywriting the publicity. Design.

I will only pay my staff $NZ20 and explain this is for 2 reasons – it’s realistic that I would take a proportion of their earnings in some way, but also I have costs and responsibilities to meet running the business and this has to be acknowledged. For the most part it grows the business. But they don’t have to know that the business is not really that viable. They just need to get paid.

So I’m saying to them, I will give you 20 hours work for $200, but the rest is commission, and you can earn $400. We will be looking to review this within a few months. The point is when they want to give up the $10 hours, they can. If they want to earn a pay rise from me or the clients they just have to do better work, and I have plenty of ideas.

This is sounding much more like a real job and not just as apprentice. A real job can be advertised. We just need that $200, and the beauty of it is that a trademe ad is only $150, we could get it all happening.

Internet jobs is free as a website and I don’t really see we wouldn’t take the most simple version of the concept and use that as the site. No the concept isn’t sophisticated or slick it’s internet jobs.

What, more sites drifting around? We want the sites that work, that’s the idea. If it works, good, if it does it, move on, if we don’t need it any more, move on. As far as I know right now, given that we have a source of income that is sufficient, all we need is good staff. That’s why we can commit to this.

The digital apprentice is a nice concept but internet jobs is so much more clear but also versatile because it is simple. There is a purpose for it in years to come when it’s primary use of getting me my first staff members has been accomplished, for it can still feed in.

Then, the gigs. Someone has to book te gigs, but someone may need to look after the gigs. And finally, publicity. All this, $40 p/hour, we just have to refine our results as we develop.

But wait now. I am starting to think this may be all to client focused when at the end of the day, I am the main client, and I am the client to keep happy.

I want videos. I want gigs. I want promo. I want publicity. I want all my websites looking good. Forex, the commune, some of this needs basic social media facebook all set up from scratch.

It seems like the sort of stuff that could get done pretty easily and then be done.

Let’s revise:

4 people to do my video, 1 social media and 1 manager, and 1 commune manager. Then there’s the maths girls.

In the old version it was just 1 video person, 1 social media and the assistant manager, but we’re expanding to cover the whole of NYL and video projects. So it may be the old model, 3 people are getting $600 and then there’s a second tier and instead of being internly dogsbodies, which can really be done a lot of from the commune, I choose girls for NYL.

But wait, I said no video person. For the big projects we will bring someone on board on contract.

Again, instead of paying them, I just rent a house and let them live there, I fill it with girls. Again instead of charging them in advance and bond, I can shake 12 hours out of them for a room they might not even have to themselves.

So as compared to how it was before, I actually only budget $2000 for 3 main people, but there’s $1k covers the cost of this place and an apartment, so I then have 3 different addresses where people can stay and swap services for rent. So I have my NYL and my commune, and another staging address. The cost to me is $4k.

But this could easily have the apartment and the third person removed saving me $1k, making my weekly cost $3k, making this a level we could be at next spring, but we wont be because we cant organise all this before then!

We know it would probably take us 2 years to find 6 people for all those roles. We only did this to work out the costs and suddenly it’s not the costs, it’s going to take time and we can’t get started now. But money is not the issue. We can afford $200 for our first employee with the sneaky trick move built in, and it’s really about us practicing having work for them every other day.

The difference is, from day one, they are working for me, on my projects. Not some random ass client that doesn’t exist. Right now my priorities are getting gigs, editing video, doing website improvements, of course as I said they would run kurb and the commune as well, the pirate and the forex stuff. In the beginning that’s just kurb and pirate – there is an order of things and forex and apprentice/commune stuff is not there yet.

But what do you want?

An assistant who just lets me know and I turn up and play the gigs. Once you have that, you cruise – but you have to build it first and it takes parctice with other artists to get into other venues.

We need a jobs list and a bounty. This helps us see whatkid of jobs we need doing and how much theoretically they might be worth.

Edit the tour videos: $600
Edit the archive footage: $500

Book 1 international tour here 2-4 gigs: $200ish
organise parties x 3: $200ish
Book 2 4-6 date tours: $200ish
other bookings including pirate matty: $50ish

The gig details need to be confirmed with venue and artists / promotion organised / payment secured. I simply turn up with the artists and play and drink and leave.

Confirming dates and all the specifics between the artist and the venue is the hard part, but once you’re working all your venues, you’re fine.

If you pay them by the gig you have to keep paying them. But if you pay them on a contract, it’s all part of their job.

Set up social media for the commune, romantech, kurb: $40 p/week

Fee for a videographer to complete a music video with me: $500
Fee for videographer to film NYL stuff for 3 hours: $80-100

It’s fine to say what something is worth to me but it’s just not likely I can go hands off, I have to be partially involved.

I’m gettnig a bit tired but the point I’m reaching for is that we are focused on my stuff and so we will sit down and nut it out.

***

All we can do is start working on our job ad, and working that on out.

I am an entrepreneur and investor looking for digital management assistants at various stages of experience to train up assisting me in a number of exciting projects managing promotional content online and offline as well as organising events.

I work in music, video production, event promotions, but I have also been a freelancer and a small business owner for almost 10 years it is a fantastic opportunity to learn skills that are indispensable in management and marketing.

You either will have the following skills or be willing to put a extra effort to learn:

– Video production and editing
– event management
– online promotion: social media/advertising/publicity

This is initally a part time role of up to 20 hours but could easily be full time for a motivated person who can make themselves extremely useful. I stress this is an incredible opportunity to work with someone with invaluable experience and skills in building and executing small business projects in and around digital media.

There is an opportunity to establish yourself in a position

Hours are very flexible in the afternoon or evening. you will likely be asked to accept a training wage for an initial trial period of 2-4 weeks depending on your level of experience.

***

I had some ideas for a romantech app. that’s where it ended, but we have the power to commission ideas for our promotion but I also see it in another way – we don’t need to do anything to keep our fans hooked because it’s some kind of business sales funnel, if you’re not interested, it’s not some huge problem for me, I just want to keep a core engaged.

Maybe I don’t need an app.

Building A Digital Marketing Intern Team

Saturday, February 20th, 2016

I needed to throw down some notes on how I was going to run my apprentice game and I lost a whole bunch of writing again so I am quickly trying to jot down as many of the ideas I had as possible.

It wasn’t anything major or groundbreaking, it was just working through the issues that may come up or considering a plan of how things would unfold and be implemented

The way I see it I throw down the job ads on the jobsites, get my first person and put them on facebook organising the ad campaign. This should get a few coming in. But you see I quickly realised the ad would bring in more candidates than I need and there would be no need to put them straight onto a facebook thing unless it’s branding because we want to stagger the candidates as they come through.

We won’t go pyramid too early. By pyramid I mean encouraging new apprentices to get more apprentices.

Now it’s coming back to me.

It was quickly apparent that my own publicity needs were of priiority over any kind of regular business, it’s always good to use thinking on my blog to recognise the real objectives so you can focus on being profitable where and when you need to be, and if the objective is not being profitable you recognise the nature of the product is different.

If the business makes no money but does an effective job of promoting my brands, then I am happy, and so we see effective promotions services as the goal not viability which does shift the paradigm.

Firstly, because you then end up asking what I see as effective promo – more and bigger gigs really.

It becomes about the gigs. I really just want to play gigs, like promoting your music seems pointless because people either like it or not, selling it is ridiculous.

Yes you need to have a team who knows how to push out your content in fact we were getting deep into this stuff and we picked out 3 threads – ads, content promotion and influencers, that is standard publicity, contacting sources from which info pushing the brand can reach audiences.

Doing this stuff professionally is essential but doing it aggressively is ridiculous, how are you going to be seen as cool if youre just dumping money into having your face shown everywhere?

Your team runs your presence. Buzz around your gigs can be leverage for the attention you want, getting people to the gigs, and interested in their own experience they are sharing with you.

When you’re building your team from scratch it’s content, websites, ad campaigns, first. Flyers and posters, build your own team. You are me, doing the job for the client except this time, I’m the client.

I’m your customer, I want the work done, content, websites, campaigns, promo, then management and bookings, get on odesk and work and also hire the people to do the work you can’t do.

Get a virtual assistant in action doing donkey work that works, do publicity and prom the old fashioned way, who do you want to talk about you? Get in touch. What do you want to say, what is the brand you are pushing? Look at other successful artists to see what they are doing.

The web presence must offer ease of access to the content, to allow the fan to engage. Fan engagement becomes the big focus, not clickbait bullshit or massive push advertising, but managing relationships with fans because the idea is to get them to come to the gigs.

Not street team bullshit I mean a nice good thing that fans enjoy. When I say fan engagement I mean interactions that get them to the gigs, that get people to gigs.

In this respect, promoters are like superfans in that they are the fans that are most important because they send you straight to go, they put you on at the gig so you can get your name circulating. You can’t teach interns to schmooze. But it would be good if you could.

Coming back to the gigs, this is why the team need to be on the gig out look, because gigs are meat in a promotion sandwich, they are what can actually be promoted as the outcome rather than the artist brand, because you need to take the steps to get someone to actually engage to the point that they are going to be a supporter and be part of a swell of interest on which you can leverage attention.

We already know, sometimes organising your own gigs is all that you can do. But what I had said was that this would be second phase. You have to teach them content, ads and some publicity first but you can start to get them identifying targets and getting on the phone or the email to try and secure the object of the hustle around gigs, but as with hustling and the art of getting on the phone and making things happen, it goes beyond gigs.

It seems though really all we need is a manager, a video person and an assistant who runs kurb. Online assistant, forex person? Commune person? As I said, none of these are really full time jobs, one person may take 2 jobs to have a full time position but it seems the manager and the video person are the main roles and the kurb online person is the runt. The forex perso will be a maths girl.

That’s your basic set up, that’s say $1200-$1500 a week when previously we budgeted this at $2700 for 6 staff. there’s no way that’s happening with 18 months though.

In 2017 we’re kicking off on $1200 for staff, $1300 for rent and costs. We cycle back $3k, We collect $150k, which is enough to king us up to our desired level rolling into 2018 but to be honest I don’t think it matters. Once we hit that $5k level we’re just coasting.

Manager person, get me gigs, get me content delivery, kurb person, do kurb and then help the manager, video person, do video. It will be a slow process building up, because I need to be focused on what these people are doing or they will get lost and dawdle. In fact it maybe my need for them to maintain systems I build.

Whatever I’m trying to achieve, my staff are doing the work. I want gigs. DJ gigs, pirate matty gigs. I want people living in the commune. I’m on the star now, looking to get actresses for videos and fairies. We are trawling for talent. Gigs, videos and promo for the gigs and videos. Websites, all our prime web properties need to keep getting pushed forward.

Kurb, Romantech, Pirate Matty, apprentices, new forex, cheap video, etc., all these ideas need love.

But what are the ideas that I need to work so that I’m getting my $1200 worth a week?

Don’t you think you could get a video person $20 an hour on call? Sure, but stop being cheap. I need my gigs. Why pay a manager when you can just pay for the gigs? Like seriously. It makes me think that the little jobs can be worked up with my trainees but the serious missions I am better off saving my money and waiting for the sniper shot of what I want.

Gigs on the coast. Tour. Internationals, my own parties. We don’t have a manager we have an assistant to help organise our gigs such as touring internationals and a few gigs out of town, plus we try to jump on a few of our own, and of course a big hi and bye party. They’re event organisers.

The more I see it these are all novice people I may be struggling with a bit so I’m not paying them much at all, I am hoping – and we may have 3 or so doing the job of 1 – that one of them actually starts to show some skill for some particular thing whether organising, doing the discs, video, or websites. Luckily this shouldn’t cost me more than a grand a week. I really need some serious video clout I call it in.

So it’s their job to keep kurb running, I know nothing of it, hopefully, I just watch the money come in and make sure theyre making more than theyre spending. Once they get trained up that is, but what I’m saying is that you might not get these people doing high end tasks for some time. You will have to take time out to work alongside them, but at least it will get me focused on the two jobs – pushing out the work and teaching someone else to do the basics so it gets easier for me.

In the end I think that’s what we end up looking at – who is going to help you if you don’t push things forward yourself?

You might be surprised what could be accomplished with a smaller team.

Experimenting with Trading

Thursday, February 18th, 2016

I have started to dabble with shares. As in a share, well 3 now. I realised the pattern with shares, they crash drastically and then reclaim their value. I said I wouldn’t touch shares because their value can be wiped out and that doesn’t suit my risk strategy of absorbing losses.

But I also saw that after each of these recent slides, it just carves that decline back again, especially following the GFC, that was a massive rally that’s been going on for years. Some people, again, would have got very rich.

The stockmarket is either going up or down. Once it’s finished going down, just like when a currency spikes downward, the relief rally begins, and it’s time to get in on the play while the going is good.

So it just occurred to me, we’ve just had another severe shock in this latest series that’s hit since the start of the year and I just went to check the chart and sure enough the japanese market composite is down 20% that’s a full sad story, and offering no better opportunity for me to jump in, the japanese is good because one share is only $200, where as the others are grands and I don’t think I’m ready for that, I think I will sit on my japanese for a few weeks and watch how it moves.

It’s much different than currency, you get these shooting star moves where you turn away and the thing jumps a dollar or more, just on a little $200 share. half a percent just like that, and of curse the pattern is then to keep grinding higher, until of course the crash arrives.

What I see here is a perfect opportunity for my trading style to be modded for shares, that is you have to be so careful, and have very deep pockets and also very patient.

You need to wait a day or more while the share either finds its way into profit or falls to a greater loss than 2%, should this happen 10 times, yes it will be grim, but the sharemarket falling that much doesn’t happen most months, it will happen, that’s why you must be so patient and conservative, but it will always move up in shooting movements where you can scalp nice gains, those sp500 shares worth $2k would easily pick up $20 or $30 in an hour or two, but certianly not every day, some days they would quickly lose $200. Let it fall and buy in again because your account can take it.

I already made a nice $5 profit on one of my japanese shares today and I just looked and my american share was worth $15 so I snaffled that profit. $20 today on shares.

I see, much like the turkish, a lovely little earner if I can slowly become confident in what’s going on. It’s just like what I’m doing with the yen crosses, you need to be absolutely confident you are covering your ass because a move in the wrong direction could all start going very badly since you’ve got no hedge whatsoever.

But these little moves that spurt up again and again, they look like sure fire winners.

You buy they dip, you buy, they dip, they rise, you sell . . . you never buy unless it dips significantly, the you’ve got all that headroom to take profit and wait for the next dip, or ot could roll through and raise profit on your next level. Their may be time where profits are slim, and losses run deep but I bet theres many days you can go back the same well several time and take up nice little earners and I believe after a few months I can play it more like the yen, and will really start to see a few extra hundred profits a week.

What is of course intense is the thought of this in a years time when the $20 I made could be $200 – adding another $1000 to my weekly pot.

***

Day 3 playing with shares. It is really cooking today now that I’ve worked out how to buy small mini lots, the japanese that fell back shot up again netting me $7, while the US stocks I still had in full lots also shot back for $10 and I grabbed a few others and some forex and less than a couple of hours after I got up I’m over $30 up.

I was thinking earlier that one day these shares are going to bring me pain. But not today. It’s part of the cycle that there’s pain at some stage, but I am just hoping I can at least scrimp up a few hundred on these gains to prepare for what will come.

I can’t help but thinking my technique works even better for shares because when it’s peaking, I’m not holding more than a micro lot, $100, the sharemarket suffers catastrope and loses 20%? I lose $20. And then it all begins again, I know the market is on a slow crawl back to the top.

However I could already have started position myself buying the fade so when the collapse picks up, I’m holding say, $5k, and that 20% costs me $1k, that’s the pain I’m talking about, I’ll need a few grand to prop myself up. A serious collapse becomes a lot more scarier for my risk exposure because shares are one way traffic, straight down. But such is the cleansing fire that it is only an opportunity to make more money.

I’m just getting this crazy feeling again as if I’ve cracked it, this doesn’t change anything fundamentally, it just speeds up the process and makes it more likely I will have another situation in my life where everything goes on the line and I have to raise 5 figures within hours to stop the fire claiming my whole account.

The essential thing is that I’ve gotten into the market after the worst crash in years, albeit that it was only slightly worse than the most recent crash in august that killed me last time.

It’s the very best time, there is the lingering threat it may take another leg down, but even then after most stock markets have lost 15-25% in the last few weeks, it would be hard for them to keep losing value when the fire has created all this new room for growth and that’s what the market sees. It wants to fill the gap. It’s wants to make that 20% back because it knows it’s there and the most likely event, that it will cover that gap in the next few months is a very good one for me which should allow lots of opportunity to coast upwards, buying into any dips and fades.

Unlike currency that swings, shares trend up. They want to go up, companies don’t work if they aren’t increasing in value, and so you can have more optimism they are going up. They are generally on most days creeping up, except for those days it spikes down. When it drifts down, that’s bad for me because it tempts me to buy into the dip which I hold as it creeps lower before then spiking dragging a fair bit down with me.

What is crazy about these damn stocks is they jump down and creep up so more often than not when they dip it does a chance to jump in and grab a short ride up, rolling up on only 2 or 3 positions knowing that when spike comes then you test getting in again except now you’re rolling up 4-6 positions, so youre covering the gap with some nice profits – you’re always gaining more comig up from the bottom then you are falling down from the top.

It does mean when the market reaches record highs I am not really going to be making much money as I will be insisting on one or 2 positions because a big drop from the top is always a possibility and that’s where you’d find trouble, falling hard from the top with a whole lot of money down.

All markets and commodities would fall together so you need to have that money off the table.

It’s just watching and learning how stocks behave in their moves I’ve been really surprised. When they start jumping you’ve got a chance to jump on if you’re watching, then you can jump off, and come back later to see if they’ve slipped again and are ready to do a little jump again, this can go on several times a day, and I’m picking up a few dollars and novice level, once I’m settled in it’s going to give me some nice turnover, especially when we do get hit by a crash, it means once you’ve tested the water you can heave back in knowing there’s some steady gains to grab on the comeback.

MATH PRODIGY MARKET TRADING INTERN

This I considered was a way to groom assistants that were loyal. Good girls from good families. What you’re hoping is that after a year you have an employee who is completely trustworthy and already earning the best money an 18 year old could hope for. In 3 years this whole thing could have played out, we only need to build someone’s loyalty over a year or two and we will be breaking through. I can put them on a salary of a mid level accountant when theyre 20 and they can be a big girl with a big girls job, working for the marxist tony stark, that guy who does the videos, the parties, the DJ, etc.

It’s quite possible I may have a few. This could actually be my fund. My money is in my account, I check it once a day and it is totally secure.

Then I set up other accounts for the girls. It’s a eggs in one basket situation. If one girl ever goes rogue for whatever reason, she doesn’t bring down my empire.

Each one’s account would only be about $50k and they’d all have access to more funds – $10k. They should all be able to generate $5k a week. What’s more I can have them compete to discover which is the best. They would never trade shares, and their turkish, japanese and swiss trades would be added later and only ever at low risk.

The girls don’t need to know there’s no investors. They can still go with me to trading events, theyre the ones who have to learn the stuff, and being mathletes, they will understand all the fibonacci retracements etc. I mean this is at the stage that if the business is legit, then I can approach the schools saying i’m looking for senior students, just be careful about specifying girls. I think actually what I should say is I have a couple of boys already and I am looking for a girl.

I would likely manage big carry trades on my own with another broker, if I wanted to buy a million lira for example after it had crash badly simply so I could collect $80k interest a year on it

But also it’s an emergency contact so that if I ever I need someone to log in and manage the system, I have someone I trust already trained.

It’s also that a young girl is likely to see this as just a job, it will never connect that she could trade herself. Of course it will eventually, but it would be especially hard for a young person to commit themselves to this kind of life and setting up a front as a proper company will create this impression that just having the system for trading is not enough, when of course it is.

Women are not so likely to strike out from the group. Also of course if the girls think they’re competing it will make them competitive for my approval.

I think in 5 years I would only be trading once a day, but instead I would have a team I pay say $500 p/week plus say 5% of what they earn.

It is likely they may never meet until they get to a level of high trust. But to me that level of trust is when theyre’ hauling in $20k for me, and I’m likely doing the same, I’m way over where I need to be, why is there any reason for me to do anything other than set up a proper business so it all maintains this legitimacy, and I don’t even need customers or to talk about anything I don’t want publicly known.

Digital Interns / Apprentice Video

Tuesday, January 26th, 2016

We have to start with a video to get these ideas moving. This is always a great idea when you’ve got new concepts coming through – Start blogging or coming up with a video idea to explore and demonstrate the strength of your idea.

I have some people coming who are going to make their videography skills available to me so I wanted to be prepared to take advantage of this by nailing a whole bunch of videos including these concept videos where I just discuss ideas for each concept I’m still involved in – how it came about, how I see the advantages offered by me and any additional benefits or aspects to be considered, as well as some rudimental projection on what could proceed from this concept as a starting point.

Subjects proposed

– Digital Apprentice
– Self Reliant Living
– Forex Begins
– Pirate Matty

Is there an idea for Kurb? Well why would I want to make a video to tell people I’m ot doing CD/DVD any more? It’s about something I have no intention of continuing to develop unless it was a retrospective or archival approach, and we already have that

I guess since I lost my original notes I am taking the time to think again about why I am doing this. It’s because using video to present a concept is such a simle and straightforward way to communicate. We need to be in the habit of presenting ideas. So we need ideas to present.

We also felt this needed to be done as part of our progress – once this is done I won’t really be looking at any videos for awhile except star now. Maybe then we go on to set up our digital apprentice web site and begin to get the ideas for the ads in place.

That’s probably another post – right now we’re still pushing out these scripts we’re using for the next set of videos.

***

Hi this is Matt from Kurb and I wanted to take the opportunity to talk to you about my new digital apprentice idea, I’ve been running my own online businesses for over 10 years now, working in various areas of marketing, promotions, event management, new business ideas, websites and content such as blogs and video, social media, so if youre a young person at all interested in finding independent success in these areas you’ll be interested in this.

Having succeeded myself it’s time for me to leverage those skills by giving others the benefit of understanding the massive advantages you get of going straight into online freelancing without training so that under the guidance of someone like me who can give you experience, training and a very basic level of paid work. This means you can maintain a baseline guaranteed income, building toward a career that will give you massive independence and freedom, in a world where those who want to succeed will have to train and compete harder, paying more in rent and mortgages, for the dwindling amount of jobs offered by the old system.

So you’re working for me, but you’re also learning how to attract and manage your own clients by offering a range of online services, learning to work for yourself, and this is so important, because the way we are living and working in the city now is changing the quality of lifestyle available to us. There are less jobs for people without highly specific and developed skills, taking years of costs and training, leaving more people fighting for less jobs, while the rents and the mortgages continue to climb as those people competing fr those jobs, drive the market up, squeezing all the opportunity out for all but those who are able to succeed at the top.

This is not going to reverse in less than a generation, if you don’t have the deposit for a home in the city now, you never will, only those who can innovate and renegotiate with the system for a better way of life are going to have the opportunity to have a lifestyle that isn’t indentured, that means doing everything because you have to keep paying just to do it! That’s how the old system won by grinding people down, when now it’s simply clear that the technology of the internet gives people who have the courage to chose it, a better way of life.

The internet is not going away, it is where it’s happening, everyone knows this. You need to compete there where simply the fact you speak english gives you an advantage, you only need to prove your skills and the market is there, that is the upside of globalisation. You have access to a worldwide market to sell your skills on.

When you’re involved with someone like me who has succeeded again and again in finding lazy, simple ways to scratch a few dollars out of the internet you can learn to create opportunities that every freelancer lives by – flexibility not only in when you work during the day or week, but where you work, which begins to free you from the high costs and resource draining intensity of city life.

Because when you’re a freelancer you’re on your own, you learn vital survival skills that people clinging on to their jobs at big companies simply don’t have. It’s the empowerment of being your own boss – you’re not under any pressure to do or be anything other than do a great job. Who you are and what you think is no longer your employer’s concern because you don’t have one.

But my digital apprentice concept I am developing is not merely about me setting you as a freelancer for an exchange of labour, it’s about functioning outside of a tired old system that is grinding down the people and the planet, in a way that we can form a community based on more co-operative ideals

So what will happen if you get in touch with me about this digital apprentice concept? Just as I accept that you are coming to work for me and you need something to put in your pocket, you have to accept I am taking time to teach you skills that I have already proven will work if youre conscientious about it. It depends on your skill level how much I can pay you, when I start assigning you tasks to teach you skills to manage online projects. It starts simple with content creation, writing, videos, social media tasks, the beauty of being a digital freelancer is that everything you learn t build your own business is exactly the same skills you offer – blogs, videos, social media, websites, design, even hiring and managing your own freelancers!

I’ve done it all before, and if youre willing to take the time and work with me, I will show you how to be successful and independent and escape the trap just like I have.

What’s my vision for this, what am I trying to achieve? Well I’ve made my money, my dreams are in big ideas for communal structures that are not based on exploitation but co-operation. I am reaching out to bring young people on board because although some people who take up this opportunity will go on to forge their own path like I have, I also want to bring a small team of people up with me as I develop new ideas, and leave the opportunities I’ve already established in the hands of the digital apprentices – people who stay with me through this process will have great opportunities in new, ethical ventures

So this is the first video I’ve made about my idea, I’m calling it the digital apprentice because that’s the idea, your being trained on the job for a smaller wage, but as you are working on my projects you are also learning and developing your own ventures, that’s a real opportunity and I hope you’ll think about it, tell people about it and be back to see my next video talking about more specific, and letting you knnow more about why i believe this is a great opportunity to be involved in.

Self Reliance

Hi It’s Matt from Kurb here and I had started working on a video about my digital apprentice concept and I realsied this needs context. I need to talk about what is happening on the greater scale of working and living in Auckland, in New Zealand, in the city and in those places in the future.

To me it seems those trapped in Auckland, trapped in the big super cities of the globe will be continually squeezed in different ways as they compete for less jobs, less work made available to pay ever rising rents, amongst increasing areas of structural poverty traps people on low income can’t escape from. With the technlogy available creating new opportunities you can choose to level up to a more self reliant way of life in order to succeed in a new paradigm. Like climate change was well forewarned, the decline of the welfare state, whatever your politics you must accept the governments of modern democracies are not preparing adequately for the strain their demographic make up will be put on cities and society. There are strong arguments that are moral and practical, to adopt a more self reliant approach to life, that unhooks us from a system that is not just using us, but using us to oppress others.

Wouldn’t you rather simply get up , do a few hours work online to put some money in your pocket, do half an hour in the garden, and spend the rest of your day doing as you please?

This is not a crusade it’s about choosing a better life, one that withdraws you from exploiting and being exploited. This is so much more than orientating yourself toward working freelance using your skills online and then becoming flexible in new living arrangements and costs, it’s about being active in demonstrating better ways we could all live without the old system that won’t change unless we force it to by withdrawing from it.

Auckland is my hometown, I love it, and I will always want to be near it because I’ve spent my whole life here and I am attached. But unless you are very wealthy or have certain skills in high demand by corporates, it is not going to be a place where people can thrive. The housing will always be too much. The traffic will always be terrible. You will always have to work terrible hours and submit to terrible demands to compete for the few opportunities offered to the people continuing to come to the city looking for them

Or you make your own opportunities, it’s what I’ve done all my life. I grew up in the inner city, I know how important it is to be tuned in to new trends and thought, but now that is not exclusively in the inner cities, it’s all online, there are so many opportunities to not just sustain yourself selling your skills online, but to socialise, culturalise and educate yourself – as long as you are near the city for whatever practical or personal reasons, there’s no need to maintain the incredible cost and inconveniences of having to work there

I made my money – over 10 years I tried so many different ways to make money online until I settled on just the ones that suited me to make the most money, and I know this game, it’s not just about your flexibility so you can work whenever and live somewhere where you don’t pay nearly so much rent so you don’t have to work so hard. The time you save every day by not commuting or having to look professional every day for your role. It is about you moving to a position of empowerment where you are not just a dog at the table waiting for scraps to be handed down in the form of a promotion to an more demanding job where you work even longer hours. I can say whatever I like online, I can live the life I choose because my clients came to me because they need what I do, but it took me years to find out what that was, but now I’m set up.

And so this is my vision I am talking about. We are going out of the city, I will be looking to buy multiple properties in what at the moment is looking like the Hauraki region where we are still only an hour and a halfs drive from auckland and inviting people who want to learn to live self reliantly rent free – propping themselves up, rather than the system that drains us, so that we can live and we can allow the system to if not die, at least be forced to change as more people escape from it’s cycles weakening it, and positioning themselves outside of it, should it begin to fall apart.

I can teach people to make money onlline. We can grow vegetables, we can install solar panels, this is the concept of a community for people who are forward looking. It’s not about leaving the city. It’s about recognising that we need to renegotiate with what the city is offering us. This is an opportunity for musicians and artists creative people, modern people, free people, who still need to be near the city to use it, but don’t need to sacrifice themselves to live there, when other opportunities exist that means your career, your social life, your culturalisation should not suffer unreasonably

The over arching concept is self reliance. We can’t stop climate change. We can’t build a fairer society. But what we can do is make our own personal choices to live a life that’s not just a better choice for us personally but a better choice for everybody, and a great example of how the world could change one by one not by making a sacrifice but by choosing to empower ourselves.

I’m Matt Turner at Kurb and I hope you’re listening because I am looking for people to be part of some great new ideas. Thanks

New Apprentices

Saturday, January 16th, 2016

Well well well. Some velvet morning when I’m straight, I’ll tell you what happened with the trading and I am still doing it, but my ideas are going to take a lot longer to come to fruition than I’d hoped.

For now it is other projects I will be focusing on.

I still use the kurb blog for jotting down kurb ideas, business and organisation ideas which I’m still involved with as I am the trading, however what kurb used to be as a media company may not be what this blog is all about any more. Kurb is just an all purpose brand for me to develop my ideas.

The transition from what kurb was to what it will be started when I began just writing out lots of forex trading notes, now it continues.

I see first a linear continuation between my ideas for apprentices, my ideas for staff and my ideas for a co op all of which I will be gioing into further.

But as always what matters is what I can be doing now, at a point where I’ve got no capital to front these ideas.

If I had the capital it would just be sites and ads and all good we’re away getting people. But what can we do without cash? We plan. That’s why we write here, we need plans to work with so when the people come along we’re not confused about what we want them to do.

First we want to begin the digital apprentice concept, this brings in people to work who can then be groomed to either become staff or one of our commune colonists.

This merely needs a website and a video, a blog site to post some blogs.

For their application I could ask for a 500 words on the advantages of being a digital freelancer.

But what jobs will you put them on first? Well they need to get set up on odesk and fiverr such, and I am their first employer. Can they edit videos? Can they write blog posts? Can they set up social media, are they willing to do a video to use. They need to set up their own website, and start blogging. They need to be making videos somehow and they need to work out basic ways of prmoting videos and writing. Link building? Submissions? Write an article on how to promote articles.

If I had the money I would be straight on a jobsite, I’d start with a part time employee to set up the facebook, the ad campaigns, create content, but once that was going providing people, focus would come on my activities, that’s all I’m interested in really, sure it’s a great outcome to teach young eople to be self reliant but my goal is to develop 2 or 3 key employees who then shepherd the rest on to building the commune and my little empire, basically.

What is it that I am trying to push the candidates toward? Doing my bookings. Doing my promo. Running the CD DVD business. Doing the video.

My hope that soon enough we have a little group of bunnies taking $100 each running off and doing tasks, I can afford to have them do my bidding which means they only do promo for me. Their job is to make sure people find out about my music, video and writing, how? There will be ads, but how do I improve the content?

I’m not quite grasping what these people do. Well I do the songs, videos and some social media, they need to make all the social media instagram stuff I can use, video clips, vines I can use. They need to post across all my social media, and it’s all got to go back to the website, where there needs to be blogs and email round ups of this content.

My network of influencers must be maintained that means, I need to grease their wheels and reciprocate posts and such. We just start by identifying accounts across platforms they we want to engage with and with what content. It’s their job to identify content providers we can work with. Who needs to be paid how much and how can we measure what effect it has? Who can we reciprocate with? Getting on this hustle with an overseas VA is probably a big part of the job, building a ice portfolio of channels you can push out through.

Youtube channels. Twitter accounts, Facebook accoutns, blogs etc, identify people coming up in the mid tier who can be buttered up or bribed to share links, get attention, get follows, friends etc., and it’s really very simple. You make videos for the songs that are for sale and funny videos also, When a video is ready, the staff will make a number of vines and grams to be shared out to promo the vid, I will likely have one or two blog posts of my own and all this content has to be cross posted and linked from each account, then there will be a round up post – one as a cut and paste for republishing, and one for the fans on the email list.

SONG >> VIDEO >> VINES, GRAMS >> UPDATES, TWEETS>> CROSS POSTING (TUMBLR, ETC) >> REDDIT, ETC >> PRESS RELEASE MEDIA COPY RECAP >> BLOG VERSION RECAP >> EMAIL LIST RECAP

So that’s what happens when a new song or video comes out in terms of preparing the content to be served.

These kids have to learn this stuff. They have to learn to do it the fastest most organised way and then learn to teach someone else. Then we need to get them producing the videos so it becomes a closed loop. I just have to add my songs and do some acting. We have our social media under control, we have our advertising under control, the team are learning advertising. It costs money, but we have a machine and the crazy thing is once we get to 1000 which may only take a couple of years, we can coast, we have an active fan base that is present, we only need make sure our gigs are booked.

You approach gigs the same way you approach PR with the bloggers. Research on venues and contacts, make contact, present the content and the proposition and then follow up. It’s about who is making the decisions and getting in touch with them. You have to get onto the social medias and the telephones to establish contact.

So you make content which is video and writing, then that enters the social media cycle, then you are also collecting contacts of people who are involved with relevant music media influencers and relevant venue bookers.

How do you find them? You find a tour by a similar artist and pick off the venues, follow the venues to the contact and ask them specifically about who was involved in that gig and whether it worked. You’re just copying from the template that is already there, except you are not doing the legwork.

Same online, you do the reverse search based on an artists promo for their album and you begin to build your database of people you work with. You may only need a a few bloggers who’ll take $50 to feature your new track on their site for a week or something, and it gets 1000 views, you get 10 new followers. That’s what we want, the numbers will build over time.

We really only need a few PR outlet points and a few good venue contacts at the core, plus a bit of fluff around the edge and we’re good to go, it seems like a system one competent person could easily manage. Of course constant updates to the website would also be included.

It makes me think that the interns are simply putting together a system that one day one of them will operate for a small package.

So at first we want about $200 worth of apprentices but we need maybe $100 a week for ads too. Everytime we drop a new song or special video, twice a month, we’d probably spend a few more $100.

So we will need some money, but not too much. This should propel us to a point where within 2 years we will have 1000 fans. But it will cost $40k. $40k to get to a point where I was at myspace. Dozens of active fans many of which I am talking to every day, thats part of the job, and focusing our marketing on certain cities we are going to continue to be active in.

Auckland, Brisbane, Chiang Mai, Dubai, Belgrade, Kiev, for example, I focus my attention in terms of gigs on a circuit I am nailing into place, that is we only advertise in cities or countries where we gig, since we’re trying to extract some value, so that in half a dozen cities I am guaranteed a crowd and so I am booked twice a year at the end of each season.

Which again says I don’t need a big effort once the system of content is put into place, and there are people making content, and they have all the contacts.

How long would it take to get this into shape? A detailed system for social media, a solid contact list for promo and gigs. 2 years? Really? It seems too easy. Once you have the money and you can pay people to be here you just roll. Get them doing this work. Here’s the video, here’s the song, get the vines and grams and posts all ready, the article ready and torpedo tubes armed fire when ready and then bazoom. Let her rip, get the copy ready to go out on blogs and email lists so that content is delivered across all platforms.

What happens? Hopefully I get a few thousand views on my vid. hopefully I get a few dozen more people on my facebook and twitter, tumblr, instagram, snapchat even. and maybe some subscribers on youtube and email sign ups.

It’s almost as if the song becomes secondary to the campaign around it. But the campaign isn’t just to turn heads, it’s to make promoters in our chosen cities know that we are active. It doesn’t matter if we have 10 fans as long as we get gigs in 10 cities. A front is not a big deal as long as you know it’s a front. It’s all just a front so I can play gigs, and let everyone know I play gigs so it makes it easier to sell the brand that I am a DJ/producer who travels the world and I am crazy because of my stupid videos and insane associations with irony boys and traders.

The whole message is it doesn’t matter if you like my music. I play the gigs, I get paid, I’m connected with the wittiest fellows and I am insane, and there are hot girls in my videos.

These are the priorities, but the pirate stuff would also need to be considered, which extends out to star now and managing that side also, managing me.

Of course these are servics that can be replicated for other artists but that is not my priority.

So it’s the site, the write up and the video we must get ready for launch. We’ve got 6 months.

Investment Contingency

Sunday, August 9th, 2015

Now that I’m safe again, my attention turns from worst case scenario contingencies back to how things could work to get me to the next stage, that is getting my equity higher so I can borrow more, so that should that borrowing quickly become unprofitable, I am not putting my equity in danger should it backfire.

More equity means I can borrow more to put on the table, which means I can earn more.

It seems by making strategic trades, this is the safest way to expand my exposure for greater risk reward, rather than simply heaving into the market. Choose positions that are going to be prudent.

The aussie was being hammered, which meant we knew it would spike up on the retracement, it just took weeks for that retracement to appear. It was less prudent to assume the trend would continue. When you have room to invest more, you can buy positions on the opposite side of a spike, ready for the retracement, however far the spike may be going – even weeks. Buying on the dip of course is the strategy for the otherside.

Trades that build the hedge are less risky than trades that unbalance the hedge.

I just wanted to talk about trading contingencies as I am still in a patch of doubt considering how all my trading work could come undone if I’m not careful. It has been a long few weeks but I am back in the safe zone

You always need a contingency – I was working out how much money I would need to cover my ass in a worst case scenario. How much room would we have to make?

EUR/AUD +1k
GBP/AUD:+3k
USD/AUD: +3k

This makes it obvious that my big problem is the collapse of the AUD, and my estimations are that I only need another $7k to cover my ass in a worst case scenario there.

My belief is they will run out of crises

What we are lucky for is that all the extreme movement is being accounted for now while I can still afford to cover my ass. If this was happening on a $500k account with only $40k equity I couldn’t rustle up $20k+ to insure we could stay alive for a couple more months. But $20k suddenly isn’t that much.

But honestly when you reach $500k will you be $400k in debt? This is what it seems.

But I am hoping in future the swings will settle into a smaller range it occupies for a number of months and spreading larger amounts over a smaller range will create more pronounced results as well as covering the same range and thus recycling positions rather than ever breaking a new range high that would see the bigger new positions stretched to ever higher lengths.

In fact the opposite is likely – when we finally have enough equity we can wind down hedges properly as we originally traded.

So in fact most new positions that are widening out are going be placed on top of reversals. This suggests new margin growth will be part of extending the hedge play, yet it will bring in better capital growth returns eventually, and equity is rising as it reverses over that territory.

We are working at a formula now of 6.66% of the full leverage becoming debt eventually. Which given that leverage is .2% does that suggest every dollar of margin creates $33 of debt?

Well the maths is $29 right now, but that could easily be $33 with a bad run. So when you add another $100 worth of margin you are signing up for a posssible $3000 more debt long term. 30 x you have to make that $1 back before it’s worth it. The thing is in various parts we are starting to get our 30 swings in.

so from that you could say that each $3000 of equity spare allows for another $100. But we know that could go wrong.

I think we have a safe plan, advancing $100 margin with each $1000 equity, but that until we get to $20k equity and that is based on < $100k hedge spreads. Once we reach $30k equity we will be playing $4600 margin and $150k hedge spreads, I hope that would see us profit $2k-6k on most trades with an average of say $3k. So I could add the money in 3 months and simply jump there but I think we want to see more. Most of our pairs havent even reached $150k except for EURUSD And GBPUSD gave it a tickle. Breaking down the megahedges is what this is all about. Taking the pain, and then the ultimate windback. We can wait for the risks worth taking because that is when we will call on our back up, if that fails. That money is to build hedgfes, but only where it's likely they will pay out - not on the euro, though we can lift the paranoia on the euro soon. AUDGBP is a starter but not GBPEUR yet, we must wait. USDAUD also must be cautious as we must be sure this retracement has ended, whereas long term the GBPUSD is the least certain pair - though balanced, we can't weigh in yet. AUDGBP is the only candidate for adding to the margin in order to build the hedge and even then only as a secondary defence to a counter hedge! I think we must continue strategically as we have, feeling for swing highs, and putting in these road blocks like I've described so that we get a good squirt of profit and it all helps chip away - yes, the swing can lead us to turn around and carry $100+ debt but that's great considering these guys will knockout $10 $20 hits regularly in exchange, and the $1000 position on the far side of the game is already costing me $200+ and it hasn't ever profited me nothing. I can ride a $100 stone in my shoe for a week or more. The point is as we're laying on new margin we're saying the EURUSD is at 1.09, is it going back to 1.29, or even .89? No. no time soon in the next 12 months. is GBPAUD going back to 1.86 from 2.09 or even above $2.20? I very much doubt it. The big moves we've experienced may not happen to us on the edge again for some time. A diving action over week such as these may happen the opposite direction this time - a sinking GBP, a rising AUD releasing equity rather than chewing it up, and placing us deeper in the middle where we are so distant from the biggest danger 73 EUR/USD 160 vs 233 - delving into the parity dive, holding both levels as equally as we can going down. 55 AUD/EUR: 95 vs 40 - careful of the sheer drop here - I looking out for which pairs could in the future be ones to go off the deep end. 43 AUD/GBP: 109 vs 66 - hard times call for bigger hedges and that is where we have gone, recognising we are ready to go all the way out to 150, but we must keep the hedges in check and in line with the price movement. 43 GBP/USD: 94 vs 137 - Lower on both sides! Nice work. With EUR/AUD which is the fight for the bottom, this represents the fight for the top, and is therefore also uncertain, although USD strength 31 AUD/USD:105 vs 74 - We are hedged further in again. The big hedge is not just protection, it's standing opportune here for the australian to go as low as 71 before seeing a correction. The lucky thing about the AUD sides is we still have more room there to work with on the other side. But when the .735 level breaks we have to ramp right up to perhaps 80k so we need some $10k positions in there. 10 EUR/GBP: 101 vs 111 - this surge we actually played pretty well, we are tipping this can't run more than a few more cents but we have been wrong, wait for the reversal, still room on the other side. You can see the larger hedge positions and smaller hedge gaps indicate how unprepared I was with $75k gaps - not only was a caught short and put against the wall, but I also missed the opportunity to ride big hedges to a mighty result. Now I believe even $100k gaps can be too dangerous for now. I was thinking about my investments. WIth the turkish, I figured you could make $600 p/week off $100k, but with a normal investment, you'd need to have $500k+ to make $600 p/week. That's the base case, $1200, but what if you went riskier and went $200k into a turkish investment and then $400 setting me up for the basic figure of $1500 p/week. My trading covers my asset funding. What am I doing with that $800 extra, whether it exists or not, what is the aspiration? I can't see myself buying third and fourth properties within 2 years at the very soonest, and we would be hoping to be holding $400k in my trading investments by then. That should be enoughto be earning $3k-$7k.At this point it doesn't really matter how much I acquire, it's really what I can prove I earn. I'll get the money I need to buy what I like. You can buy a car, but after that it doesn't really matter, it costs money in lots of little ways to travel. After that, I don't really know. I have a regular safe income, and I have my work to a lesser extent, but both of these are removed when I sell my business and buy houses. What I see is that until you sell the business and buy houses, you are accumulating what you earn from the business and the returns on safe investments to back up the plans that may not be covered if the various personal investments and trading I do cannot provide a significant pool to dip from. When I buy 2 houses I will no longer get a regular payment from a secure investment, but I will no longer pay rent. In that case I will - given 18 months - have split my investment income into my regular trading and the more reliable and less risky turkish trades. The turkish replaces my secure investments. And I don't pay rent when I'm in the country. So I go from $1400 + work + trading - $800 = $1100 + trading $1000 + trading - $500 = $500 + trading $600 + trading - $300 = $300 + trading + capital gain ($500) + rental I will have enough money to support myself. When I don't have any safe investment returns because I bought a villa and an apartment, I can still take a payment of $600 from my turkish investments, paying for my food, gas and bills primarily off my broker issued credit card. I can still work obviously, and then of course there is my trading, for which there really is no specific

Forex Strategies July 2015

Saturday, July 25th, 2015

At the moment I am so focused on my forex that I just use this blog to jot down notes that I can refer back to.

For now I am just a trader learning the ropes but long term I would love to take this further and so here I am providing the beginnings of forex flavoured examinations that will help my SEO over time.

Because I am trying to start the habit of saving screenshots of my trading each week so I can track the developments and see where I went wrong, it has oocured to me I will probably post these up one day when I have moved through the industry to a point I feel confident in this move.

But for now the screenshots are much like this blog, they are simply to help me track my progress since I have definitely had my ups and downs in forex trading this year!

The worst I see is that within a few months I finally crawl my way to $20k equity where I can flirt with $4k margin, and then I must grapple with the spectre of a possible $200k blow out as could possibly be roughly calculated from the idea of having $2 million in positions that take on $200k loss despite being hedged. We’re just talking worst case scenario that you open up to.

But remember it take some time – months – to distribute that extra leverage, and we’re talking about the full range here. The last 10 months have included 2 massive extraordinary moves that took me completely off guard, the USD rising vs the Euro in the beginning of the year, and the rise of the Pound vs. the Aussie more recently, made all the worse by the fact that I didn’t see it ever breaking this high.

What this means is I am running out of sheer drops. very time I retreat from the edge of the hedge, running the risk of the valley effect, as I am experiencing with the EURUSD.

How am I going to avoid that? Tighter hedges. In the future, my hedge size is proportionate to what my equity can support. I only need to build hedges if the equity is low and so I must build them early.

But there will be less on the edge play as time goes by, and those sheer drops from the edge won’t hurt because it’s all territory that’s been covered.

The next big drop we are expecting is the USD’s next move up. The pound is a dark horse? How far will it go? What’s happening now could be the big price in, it may plateau and correct jsut like the USD did, that is why I prepare reasonable rises, but no action stations for continuing, rolling building like the USD.

However there is the AUD, the AUD and euro could still fall some more short term, but correct later when doubt arises.

What would I do with EURUSD if I was in this position without knowing? Trail back the counter hedge until it broke the levels at 1.09 and 1.10 and that’s where I would have big hedges of about $10k, $20k and then come 1.106 then you jump in with the big say $40k.

You got $230 falling, but $200 rising, you are taking an equity drop, but perhaps at this point, only a few hundred dollars.

What happens if you get caught stuck there? Now you’ve got $200k coming down on your head, rolling through to who knows?

Well you still have $230. You still have the bigger number. So the moment it turns, you already have the counter hedge, $20k, in place. both these big hedges are designed to be taken off, in fact it would be hoped the profit from the $20k counter would mop up the loss from the the $40k once the trend kicks back in, then it’s rinse and repeat except you know which level was failed at before, so you wait for the test of the level.

See I’m beginning to learn my levels and it just makes me realise some really cool important stuff.

So what is our plan?

Keep 200k riding til 1.05, watching for the reversal where we might risk our first counter hedge as a test. Otherwise we’re looking for critical breaks under 1.05.

At that point we actually try proper trading. $50k positions, with stops back at 1.06 that cost

Why wait for 1.05 to do the big positions? Well I will take thos opportunities between 1.08 and 1.05 but I want to see the $225 clear out down to $100. Our mission is to keep the other side under 200k and I really think that isn’t hard.

The USD will rise against the euro and more slowly vs AUD, and the GBP will as well – just not as fast, and maybe very little at all vs the AUD and so the USD will also rise against the pound.

But where are the sheer crazed drops that destroy us?

Maybe a strong euro MIGHT can the AUD, the USD we are ready for and the pound on the euro and AUD we will stay ready for.

***

40 AUD/EUR: 88vs 48 – careful of the sheer drop here – I looking out for which pairs could in the future be ones to go off the deep end.

58 AUD/GBP: 120 vs 62 – hard times call for bigger hedges and that is where we have gone, recognising we are ready to go all the way out to 150, but we must keep the hedges in check and in line with the price movement.

51 AUD/USD:107 vs 56 – We are hedged further in again. The big hedge is not just protection, it’s standing opportune here for the australian to go as low as 71 before seeing a correction. The lucky thing about the AUD sides is we still have more room there to work with on the other side. But when the .735 level breaks we have to ramp right up to perhaps 80k so we need some $10k positions in there.

74 EUR/GBP: 122 vs 48 – this surge we actually played pretty well, we are tipping this can’t run more than a few more sense but we have been wrong, wait for the reversal, still room on the other side.

You can see the larger hedge positions and smaller hedge gaps indicate how unprepared I was with $75k gaps – not only was a caught short and put against the wall, but I also missed the opportunity to ride big hedges to a mighty result. Now I believe even $100k gaps can be too dangerous for now.

57 EUR/USD 163 vs 220 – delving into the parity dive, holding both levels as equally as we can going down.

54 GBP/USD: 84 vs 138 – Lower on both sides! Nice work. With EUR/AUD which is the fight for the bottom, this represents the fight for the top, and is therefore also uncertain, although USD strength

***

The opportunity to expand my trading makes me apprehensive about leveling up without any qualifying achievement. Picture myself in 6 months. Double the capital, double the liability. Same equity.

How do I make my money back? Well you wait, and you might make some back, and your equity would full further as you took your hedges back, and then they would recede and you would start to look good. Don’t forget I could simply add $50k to my 1st account and just leave all the hedges to unwind except after a few months, all the old stuff, the forgotten parts of the range, in my case the top of the euro and the aussie, they would never come back.

But why would you waste all that movement? But when will I ever get to a point where I see equity increase? It seems so mad.

The equity never rises, the profit we’re making never catches up with the losses increasing, so there is never anything to reinvest and grow the pace, but what can be considered is that initial target of $2k per week. Once you are no longer under pressure to grow, the $2k will slowly fill the shortfall and build up.

It’s like you’ll never be safe until you’re riding $10k margin risking $300k liability. It would still take me 40 weeks at $5k to build that up, so it would be a sketchy time. But you’d be likely to start achieving your goal.

The thing is by that stage we run no risk, and pushing out further, also not so risky but an exponential point has already been reached, you can potentially be making hundreds of dollars more each week.

We don’t need to 10x to get the

Actual Carry rates

USD/GBP: -1.3
-USD/AUD: -2.934
-USD/EUR: -.576

-GBP/USD: -.709
GBP/AUD -2.644
-GBP/EUR: -.286

AUD/CAD: +.231
AUD/USD: +.880
AUD/GBP: +.578
AUD/EUR +1.304

EUR/AUD: -3.376
EUR/GBP: -1.745
EUR/USD: -1.442

-CAD/USD: -.394
NZD/USD: +2.601
NZD/CAD: +1.951
NZD/GBP +2.298
NZD/JPY +2.745
NZD/EUR +3.024
TRY/USD +9.557
TRY/EUR +9.880

Forex Hedging Notes July 2015

Friday, July 17th, 2015

This is a forex exercise I do to measure my hedges and make sure my hedges are strategic based on reasonable expectations and management.

I was taking screenshots as well but somehow I lost the file when it was on my clipboard, a very good way to track where my trades have been, why I have been constantly jacked by the circumstances of having not predicted.

This latest movement with the GBPAUD totally caught me off guard having jumped 8-9c – another 4%+ in the last few weeks, just after I had started piling on the counter trend, expecting it to reverse. There was no indication that now was the time for GBP strength and Aussie weakness but now I see that the USD has stalled – it had already been in motion for months, and the pound moved to pole position for a short stint, right when the AUD was still absorbing the shock of bad news.

The euro is in bigger trouble than the AUD, but the euro is further down it’s path. Neither have found their bottom. euro is finding it’s way, aud just had a decent plummet. NZD had a plummet, another blow to me, but as it turns out nowhere near as bad as the GBPAUD.

I can’t help but think that now that I am back in a recovery phase, it’s like the last set of nightmares have been like wearing in a pair of shoes. It hurt, but they slip on nicely now.

Every time it gets harder to bring me down. I really don’t think I’ll see 6 again. More even hedges mean more security. More equity means more margin to throw down to make sure we don’t get near the edge.

My feeling now is if we can get to $20k equity and we are rocking q $4k margin, sure, things might get woolly at various stages but we would gain accelerating returns after a few months.

RIght now I want to confront two situations – the situation where we pull up and the situation where we walk the line.

Walking the line would be euro rising and aud falling which is a realisitic scenario. We would have to hedge. But our preferred strategy would be to pull out of any euro hedges as they started to top out, preferring to shovel our commitment onto the USDAUD to combat AUD weakness against the euro.

Buying euros would be a hedging strategy based on the withdrawal method. There is plenty to clear out of my EURUSD side but I must pick my top and I honestly believe 1.15 is impenetrable. If I’m wrong it will be credit card time. We’ve always know this though.

This would create a situation where I was forced to buy big euro positions above 1.13 with the hope of throwing them out before we reverse again. In any case it would be larger US positions going in at the top, that is we should ride in conservatively to EURUSD or EURAUD. EURGBP will fall anyway, but will also be another excellent one to invest in the other side at the top. This means taking a lot of damage, and the credit card coming out before we even think about major hedging moves.

The risk is of course we don’t protect ourselves, and after the initial move up toward 1.15 that returns us to $120k euro, it moves up again and we will have been truly savaged again for grands. A grim scenario.

My belief is after this little jump up of a couple of cents for a week or two will then be followed by the big resumption – people will know whats happening with greece and they will look towards the next determinant and thats when it will be more bad news and the euro will start selling and I will ride it down, probably particularly on the GBPEUR because ive already got too much USDEUR and I don’t want t o get caught on yet another false break out. AUDEUR is too weakany euro strength will always hit the AUD hardest because it’s weakest. The strategy is too hold as few euros as possible so we can at least reduce our long term carry costs and experiment with the technique of waiting for a currency to swing to it lowest and then start buying up madly knowing that the historical upswing can’t be too far away.

The GBPAUD is so hard. The pound is strong but where is it’s limit? We have to play the same strategy because of the historic high. If the monetary policy both point opposite directions we can’t assume it won’t continue to move up. However this looks like a prime candidate for hedge problems like we’ve seen with USDEUR.

By the time it returns to 1.02, we will be carrying a massive hedge, with awful carry terms. This is why we must continue to buy USDAUD and EURAUD at the topside rather than buy GBPAUD

How does it work if we pull up? The euro weakens against all currencies and I buy pounds while i let the aud and the usd gently wind down.

My estimation that a 1% move on the AUDEUR would give me about a $600 equity boost. A move on the USDEUR from 1.114 to 1.092 – which is only the bottom of it’s most recent range, would free me up about $1600. Take me to 1.07 and across both of those, I’ve just reset my equity to $13k. Just at 1.07. The pound being still a little overbought will be forced under the USD seeing them finally return to $5k debt a piece, winding off another $1300 worth of equity, similarly, seeing GBPAUD drop 2% to 2.042 would also allow a good $1100 to slip out.

Piling onto GBPEUR to ride pound strength mainly because we have room in that hedge that we don’t on the US side, whereas the AUD is too soft to back for euro weakness.

AUD we will have to wait for signs of life, to me, the AUD must return above .75 before it heads below .72 – our fear must be that it could again do exactly what the

With USD we can expect more tops, but with GBP we never know if we’re topping or not. With the GBP we must stay neutral. We must assume it will beat on both the AUD and EUR until it doesn’t, at which point we are walking away with some hedge marks.

But what happens is the money thrown in on the other side is nothing. It’s the unwinding of the hedge that suddenly begins to give you all your equity back.

But we have to be realistic about how it doesn’t work out. The AUD can drop further but it does look like it needs a little rest and that’s what we need it to do. The instructions for USD and GBP must be to reload the gun. At least we have that strategy available. We have to be careful if the euro rises because if it then goes to parity and we’ve built a reckless hedge we will either hurt, or be forced to ride a $300k+ hedge down.

So basically the worst case scenario is that the euro goes to 116 and I havent built a proper hedge and I get smacked down

If at 1.13 we put in a $50k trade that we give a $100 stop to, if it rises to 1.14 or 1.15 we could make $400+ just by moving the stop up. This is my last resort when hedging fails. Old fashioned trading, stops and targets. If we hit the stop, at least it saves my equity by $1k.

I think we need to seriously think about this in the USDAUD, and GBPAUD, maybe even the EURAUD if it becomes obvious that the aud is staying weak and the euro is raging strong, it’s all about where we get caught.

Think about how we can see technicial levels developing. Just recently I noticed ranges especially with the USDEUR being so trapped, the levels to buy at were obvious.

73 EUR/USD 159 vs 236 – here you can see already we are forced to hedge to heed off uncertainty. When you reach a risky equity level, you must protect it. This is the one wheer we see big slabs rolling. Until we get to 1.05, then we have to decide where we go with it.

58 AUD/GBP: 102 vs 44 – the GBP could run further but we are betting on this to not run too much further as it seems it’s already played out a 4% move to very high in it’s range. Over time the Aud will catch up with the GBP, but short term, we have to be prepared and the big hedge is a testament to how bad things got.

55 AUD/EUR: 90 vs 35 – Even though the aussie is week, we are positioning this for euro losses as we empty out the bad side of the carry on this and leave it as a place where we can profit from the euro falling even though it won’t likely fall too much.

51 EUR/GBP: 110 vs 59 – leave room for the euro jump, then stack it in for the dip buy.

50 AUD/USD:106 vs 56 — again we are balancing the knowledge that this will continue to head down with our need to wind the equity back by being as unexposed as possible when that windback comes. So far, I have done well on the windback, but have been to slow to wind up when the roll came through. We will push this harder than otherwise because we have nothing else to defend against aussie weakness versus the gbp or euro, so we have to make our gains here, maybe leave some more behind, but hedge ourselves against further aussie losses. The big hedge remains justified but we want to basically not see 75 before -$2000.

36 GBP/USD: 99 vs 135 – This is a critical pair because when the US begins rising, we want to see gains, we want to see our unhedged gaps tip back. this is one we’re waiting for, but it is also tipped to really drop long term, so there will be times where the US will go back to how we’ve seen it, huge hedging moves.

More on Forex Strategy and Hedging

Tuesday, June 30th, 2015

Now I have to have a really serious look at what I am trying to do with my trading.

It has been very frustrating recently having not made much progress, and having placed far too much faith in predictions I loaded up my USD side very hard, especially against the EUR given all the fundamental issues facing the eurozone, but of course the big correction came, and then the greek drama took centre stage making everyone hold awaiting that outcome and it has possibly restrained the kind of volatility I rely on as we have waited weeks for an outcome.

The euro is bound to come down, it’s just a matter of whether there will be a greek deal and it will bounce up first.

We now have to accept that many of the calls we made were very poor in that I did not manage those choices in a way that my system could withstand.

The first poor call was assuming a currency would not move more than 20% in a short period of a few months without some major global event. I did not see that the euro was already on a course hurtling down and by the time I got wise to it, I did make money and refine my methods but the sentiment had already begun to change.

The second poor call was going to far into dangerous hedges believing that I knew where the market was going to be based on every insistence from every source that the euro would dive to parity with the US. Now I have learnt, no one really knows how things will play, and hedging is all about short term protection at the cost of long term gain.

But we can’t forget we chose hedging as a way to save our system when the parameters became pushed which is what happened in each of those situations.

But I can’t help but feel I have more to learn about hedging, but now I also have a healthy distrust of my own confidence in trading now that I have seen how dangerous it can be.

I was actually pretty conservative on the kiwi. But again, just the kiwi pound has collapsed 19% in 2 months. I only had $5k on that trade, so in addition to the canadian, neither of which I hedged this has become an additional issue as now that the kiwi has tanked, it’s cost me $2k of my equity and the timing of that is all part of why I am so stretched.

It’s my legendary misfortune. I think I have bad luck because it’s a message from the universe that I am supposed to use my strategic ability rather than rely on luck, which I don’t have!

Unfortunately because my choices were so poor, I will have to enter into more hedging which will again push out my timetable for actually achieving some progress. But it will protect me and allow me to continue to make some cash.

I was aware of the danger that I was creating but my assurance was that if it ever got that bad I would simply hedge on the other side. Could it lead to massive balance hedges that could topple me with the smallest swnings as the both tug at my equity from both ends until there’s nothing left and I am pulled apart by two wild horses like some macabre torture?

However I have been thinking about what I should have done differently to protect myself and that is counter hedging immediately. Don’t wait until youre at breaking point on the other side.

This is where we can use a technical level. Don’t go into hedge mode until that resistance level is crossed, and buy in as it cranks up, sell as it winds down, especially as it touches the next technical level. If it pops the break, start again. Paying attention to technical levels will be another good way to make decisions when you’re riding a rally.

If I’d done this with the euro, basically waited for it to pop 1.06 and then start throwing in the hedges, and if I had kept it rolling I would have made thousands of dollars. But what if it turned around again?

You build it on the other side again, ready to roll out twice as large. The point being is before, you keep the numbers equal, no matter how high, and you choose your moment to start rolling off

As time goes on we are learning the patterns of the market, how break outs work, they’ll break and start pushing the ceiling, and then cool off, they may have a number of tries scratching at the ceiling in a day, each one lasting a few hours, and then they might chill out and try again tomorrow. Or next week.

You could have this $50k slab just sitting there at the end of the opposite side of your hedge. As your price action finally corrects you reduce it slowly from $50k. You could even do it in intervals to show the counting down process.

The idea of a $50k trade like this is that when it breaks out, you grab the tasty $50 profit, and replace it with a $20k, which you would then replace again with a $40k to make sure the trend was extending. again it would be the same on the other side. The $50k goes bad, drops $100 that is .2% then you put $20k in on the other side, if that breaks through, then you go with the $50k hedge on that side.

The assumption is that when you’re riding a hedge, it’s spiking up to new highs where it will eventually have to climb down and retrace at some point. When you’re fairly sure it has exhausted, you start building the hedge on the other side immediately. Yes the hedge may kick a new high after that and damn that will hurt, but you should already be past the big spurt and it may dwell up in this region for weeks and months, but another big spurt is probably within a 10% chance, and youre hedged up well anyway. Part of hedging as we first saw it was to then turn around and use the profits to pull out some dodgy looking positions that got left behind.

So what happens is the price point gets trapped tightly between two hedges.

You may have $150k on the long side but still a $50k hedge on the short side hanging at the edge of the high, when it breaks from the consistent swing up, thats when you roll a $10k and then a $20k hedge break, and once that breaks youre probably safe to top out at $50k. These will pull in decent profits.

But eventually it turns to go higher again, but here’s the deal. We got $200k rolling down on $50k, so once again, you turn in the $20k position. This is where stops to break even might be a good idea.

The key thing about hedging within tight ranges is that one side is making bigger profits than usual, even at a point where equit is being eaten as we lean to the far side.

Once the counter hedge kicks in, the other side is making equal losses, but those losses aren’t that unusual, it’s just a big tail when it’s the big head that’s causing all the problems, the grands worth of losses.

At some point it’s going to start coming down, and it’s at that point the big hedges coming in on the other side start being collected. Pretty soon youre 75k/225k. You will throw up the $20k on the $75k line, but that’s because you’re holding $200k all the way down to $100k on the other side, that’s when you start leaning toward the $125-$150k split.

Keeping the split number down is a sign of your judgement as every time the hedge goes the wrong way, it will rise on both sides.

Of course trends must be considered also, it is the euro and aussie tipped to sink long term while the dollar and pound will likely rise over time.

CASE STUDY

GBPAUD. We should have held $30k while grabbing $10k positions, the moment it turned around on the 90k, bang, counter with another $10k. What you eventually get is a big say $10k slab positioned as the gateway, perhaps at a point around $200 where it’s fallen to but gotten up again and again. As soon as we pull away, the $5k counter comes in. If it falls away, you take the pain knowing that the $5k’s coming down should give you some nice hits, and if it approaches again, squeeze it so if it pops either side , , ,

It has popped again and I have risked some counter hedge positions, but I’m not confident leaning over the edge, and have now wound down to $113 vs. 18k, that is a $95k difference – huge. This suggests huge confidence in me that this is topping out, but I will look for 40k vs 90k though with australian pairs we should always keep an extra $10k at least on the the australian side for carry.

Use carry to determine how much you carry.

EURUSD. When the USD starts dropping get some big wedges in behind it, but the moment it turns, drop the $5k hedge right there like we should have done from the top. Sure, collecting $5k hedges on the way down will hurt, but we will end ip rolling some big numbers on the US side.

Now I am more doubtful, considering that the euro could spend a year or more under $1.05.

But everyone seems to have a theory – so many big names are insisting on parity at some point. But then so many people keep saying that this is what the big players want us to believe, the euro has seen it’s massive decline, it is now the US faltering, and we’ll see the euro rise up where it belongs, and after that who knows, if the US data can’t recover we may have already seen the bottom.

***

So please tell me again, the story of how all this works out?

Well whether it takes weeks, months or happens tomorrow, the USD will rise again, pushing me well over $15k and towards $20k, at which point I will be adding to my lots to over $3k margin, but always weary of where I am keeping my hedges, I want the hedges to balance at halfway.

If it stops after 1.05, we may look to settle the hedge around $200k, but going to parity, that may be $250 on both sides, while after parity, we begin winding the hedge down.

My assumption is we would be well into at least $18k by then, hopefully 20k, though going to 20k equity is going to surely encourage a bit of adventure

The facts are that I may not be able to lift my earnings significantly without really hedging in, and so that’s why the $20k level is so important, because it’s at that point we get to be more daring.

But it also may leave me asking serious questions about which way these currencies are heading and therefore, we have to go back to our own fundamentals.

You hold a hedge to keep the balance so you’re alway safe no matter what happens. How we space out the money we throw down depends on the technical ranges and the price movements, congestion forces you to throw money down, by break outs allow for clean outs.

It’s only when you get to the edge, the last quartile, that you begin to wind down the hedge so when it finally tops and reverses, you’re holding little more than 10% on that side. Whether you have to hedge and how much always depends on how badly things are going. New highs will become harder to come by, and that’s where we’ll claw it back.

Forex Update 2015

Friday, June 19th, 2015

FOREX UPDATE 2015

Progress has been slow, there’s has been promising, but unsustained upswings – no real concrete evidence that bigger gains can be maintained week on week. But the breakthrough must come and it must come within a year. I just feel really doubtful because currently I have no model for when this is supposed to happen.

I believe that as long as profit is steady, and your leverage is steady, you don’t borrow more, your profit will eventually top up your equity so you are moving forward.

The key is not to increase leverage chasing bigger gains only to end up with bigger losses that your equity can’t handle which is where I’ve been having trouble. Gains are steady but small, losses are prolonged and sustained.

I understand that my losses have increased because I have distributed more margin amongst the range. All my euro ranges have gone to new highs, and whereas once I had filled those ranges with tiny little 111’s now I am filling them with, 4, 5’s and 6’s. The range between 1.10 and 1.14 is now filled with another $10k worth of positions. Those positions lose 5%, in NZ$ that’s costing me . . . another $6-700 which is all I made some weeks last month.

The main margin has been spent adding to weak AUD positions, which also have at least $10k if not $20k added to them. These only moved back 2% and the aussie exchange rate is more forgiving but that could easily cover a grand. Then you add my losses on my canadian and NZ side which aren’t hedged, well that’s a cold unhedged $1500 loss. You are tabbing up over $3k losses when in the last 3 weeks you’ve only made about $2500.

So this explains why the euro has come off a peak of 1.146, the following 2 weeks I have made very little, the euro only went as low as 1.086 – still a 5% range which is incredible to be covering back and forth in a 3 week period, all through that I would have been adding in euro positions and USD positions, 17th may to june 4, I covered that range, but added a whole lot of extra margin that wasn’t there.

In the same space euro aud has gone from 1.42 to 1.39, and then jetting from 1.39 back to 1.46 which again is 5% move where it’s collected a lot of baggage as it headed down.

So basically you’ve been screwed by the bounce finally escaping gravity, but in the USD case, it is once again the worst case scenario you could have predicted under your current strategy.

I knew coming down, there was more euro now, but now it’s gone up again and I’ve done it on both sides!

Euro goes to 1.04, massive hedge build up there. Then up to 1.14, big hedge build up there, then down to 1.086, hedge there, and now gone back to 1.136, hedge there, so we’ve been trapped into building all these hedges as the range consolidates, and although it’s not so dangerous because you’re hedged on both sides, it does feel precarious, as these hedges soak up your equity.

Eventually there will be a break out, and you can pick your top or trail out, and a new risk presents – pick your moment to leave the party correctly and you’ll make money on both sides, but if you leave to soon, you’re going to get caught in the rolling tide and you’ll need to get back in at a worse spot to cover your butt.

When you’re on the edge of the hedge, mistakes are so much more costly. But that’s on the outside. What I am learning now is that there are problems on the inside too but they are within limits.

I have a strategy. My belief is that any run on the euro, especially now with good USD reads, will be very limited, the euro will fall against the USD, GBP, and AUD – there it is right there, first euro rally it smashed the dollar, this time it was all three suffering in positions where all three can advance and regain all those losses to bring my equity back.

What this is saying is when the euro drops, I’ll take back decent equity across the board. 5% of $150k is of course $7.5k.

If and when that happens, you want to hedge to protect your gains, especially to me $20k equity seems like a place where we’re not only safe from danger, but able to crank more margin out without a short term risk

But you were talking about adding $200 margin for each $1000 equity, when 10% of $100 leveraged 1:500 is $5k – you’re allowing enough equity for a 1% loss, which is madness, we’re experiencing 5% shifts in just a few weeks, when to have a safer position in terms of returns to protect our equity, it would have to go up and down that 1% range 10x before breaking out in order not to cause pain.

This could be pretty grim but for one thing – as it goes back and forth, it is still knocking out the stops in the same range, meaning that money can be recirculated – the bigger the amounts, the bigger the profits, and the more money going back into the system, proving what I am saying, that it will break out at some point.

I have reached this position by constantly underestimating how leverage pulls the rug out, but as we swing back and forth, I get to get that rug back when returning to the secene.

Basically if I chilled conservatively for a few weeks focusing on always putting down less than I picked up, slowly the equity would reemerge. Even if I plateaued, it would still happen more slowly, and I would still generate profits, but it would be at a steady and reduced rate, rather than the attempts I’ve continually made to increase profit by increasing margin leveraged leaving me vulnerable.

It’s the fact that the margin I have added has been spread up and down preventing me from using that to make more money in a thinner range. It won’t be until we have that level on the full range we’re on can we expect the weekly earning not to fluctuate downward.

But now our margin is $3k and our earning fluctuate between $700-$1500. When we first go to $3500, it will lift income to $1000-2000 at first, but within a few weeks that will boil down again to say $800-$1800, but within 4 weeks I’ve made another $6-7k allowing me to step up to $4k margin, and again, for a few weeks I earn $1200 – $2500, but then, I slip back to $1000-2000. That’s how it rolls basically.

Slowly the amount you acquire over that month or so consolidation grows bigger and can slowly accomodate more than $500 margin and what’s more, you’re squeezing ever more into the same range. Big moves wipe out a lot of dominoes, at which point you won’t just jump back in with the same money, and it’s those points where you consolidate.

I have now made another startling discovery about my trading. The “carry” or “holding” costs for different brokers are completely different and only loosely matched to central bank lending rates.

CARRY HOLDING INTEREST RATES

I was shocked to discover I was paying interest on both sides of many pairs that had close interest rates.

I finally made an effort to check because I noticed that there wasn’t one single pair where I was holding more on the side with the higher interest, and even with all my NZD and turkish pairs I had bought specifically for the interest yield or carry trade, I was still paying a holding cost. How could this be?

Now I know. Most GBP and EUR pairs are a rip off on holding cost which made me realise my broker was profiting from the interest I pay, so therefore easily stinging me for $300 a week they were scooping off my trades when you add the interest to the commission. No wonder I get a call for a chit chat every few weeks, I’m making them good money!

Actual Carry rates

USD/GBP: -1.3
-USD/AUD: -2.934
-USD/EUR: -.576

-GBP/USD: -.709
GBP/AUD -2.644
-GBP/EUR: -.286

AUD/CAD: +.231
AUD/USD: +.880
AUD/GBP: +.578
AUD/EUR +1.304

EUR/AUD: -3.376
EUR/GBP: -1.745
EUR/USD: -1.442

-CAD/USD: -.394
NZD/USD: +2.601
NZD/CAD: +1.951
NZD/GBP +2.298
NZD/JPY +2.745
NZD/EUR +3.024
TRY/USD +9.557
TRY/EUR +9.880

***

NEW FOREX CHALLENGES

The final chapter has come now with the rise of the pound against the US and the euro against everything, the euro now smashing me against my big pound hedge and the aussie which also has a hedge, the pound smashing me against the aussie, and finally the ass dropping out of the NZ dollar which I used for carry trades to keep my interest costs down.

The NZ drop has wiped over $2k off my equity which is bizarre since I can only count $700 losses on the NZ crosses. Again it just makes me feel like with the new information I got about the carry trade rates – what is going on that I can’t see why I can’t seem to win?

Suddenly a big aussie jobs report drops and I win $1k back. It’s now bad, but not over the edge. I was so relieved.

It was feeling like a write off of a day. But I went for a run, I’ve been running every day. Now I feel great again. Maybe I should run first thing.

Suddenly it seems straightforward. My trading plan will win in the end, we just don’t know how much sacrifice it will take. That’s what it just keeps coming back to, how long will this all play out?

What is the new worst case scenario we have to face? There is no way we will ever let our equity go screaming into the ground.

What if we can only earn a grand a week for the rest of the year? Surely, surely after adding another $25k and going to $110k surely we’re not going to get this same situation where the equity continues to drain away? It seems apparent I will have to cool down yet again. But really all of that could change if the US started pumping and the Euro sinking, and that could take months also.

It seems obvious now I was as wrong about the hedging as I was about the euro plummeting in the first place. Add to that the turkish and canadian and NZ problems, you’re seeing where it all adds up.

How often will I keep being wrong? Will I eventually get to a point where I can trade for higher stakes with losses trailing me back and forth?

Did you honestly not consider that as your profits grew that so would the losses? You thought that eventually the money generated each week would surpass the losses generated going back and forth over the same stretch. But when you started to increase the margin, you also increased the losses. When I first put in the hedge, I jumped from about $1700 margin to $2300.

The fear I have is that the extra margin has not been spread far enough yet to create the kind of harder losses that have eventuated – we haven’t swung 10%, there is not reason to expect the xtra margin would have materialized to this extent.

But what I see happening is that the longer you dwell in one area, the easier it is to build up little banks of resistance where position build up unresolved. This only happens when the markets become congested and don’t move, the moves are so small, you don’t have the big moves that end up clearing out many positions.

Could it be that it really is all just piling up between 1.14 and 1.10? It moves smaller, and so more positions are slotted in.

But it’s the shifts that are happening around other levels that count. Remember if your base currency is dropping, then those positions are costing you more and subsequently you lose more on them and they cost more in terms of margin. Also, the interest is also costing me more.